Wait twenty years
The US will get rid of one of the most widespread types of cancer within 20 years
Sergey Kolenov, Hi-tech+
Despite all the achievements of modern medicine, the victory over cancer looks like a very distant prospect. However, there is one exception – cervical cancer. Thanks to a combination of vaccination and screening, the number of cases of this disease has been greatly reduced in recent years. In the coming decades, it may completely disappear at least in developed countries. And the United States is likely to be the first among them.
Cervical cancer can be practically eliminated in the United States within 20-30 years. This conclusion was reached by the authors of a report in the scientific journal Lancet Public Health (Burger et al., Projected time to elimination of cervical cancer in the USA: a comparative modeling study).
They note that to achieve this goal, no additional efforts or expenses will be required - it is enough to continue vaccination and screening programs. At the same time, more regular screening will make it possible to destroy the dangerous disease 10-13 years earlier.
Since most cases of cervical cancer are associated with infection with the human papillomavirus (HPV), vaccination against it provides reliable protection against the disease. And regular screening for the presence of a virus or abnormal cells allows you to notice the problem in time for those who have not received a vaccination.
The combination of these two tools has already significantly reduced the prevalence of HPV. For example, among American teenage girls, the number of cases of infection decreased by 86%. And among vaccinated women, abnormal cells associated with cervical cancer are 40% less common.
Currently, the incidence of cervical cancer in the United States is seven cases per 100,000 women. And mathematical models show that if current trends continue, this number will drop to less than four between 2038 and 2046. It is this threshold that WHO considers the "elimination" of the disease.
More regular screening will speed up this process, but wider vaccination coverage will have little impact on the timing of achieving the goal. Of course, this does not mean that vaccination is less important. However, it works for a longer-term perspective, preventing cases of diseases in 20-30 years. At the same time, screening reveals precancerous conditions right now.
In order to bring the victory over the disease closer, the authors call for access to screening for women from poor, low-income societies and without health insurance. The solution may be the distribution of inexpensive kits for home testing.
The fight against HPV will help reduce the incidence of other associated cancers. Among them are cancer of the vagina, penis, throat and anus.
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