5 myths about the Ebola virus
Five myths about EbolaLaurie Garrett, "The Washington Post", USA.
Translation: InoSMI
The Ebola epidemic in West Africa, according to some reports, has already claimed the lives of 4,000 people, but the staff of the World Health Organization (WHO) believe that the number of its victims may be much higher. The international community has already taken a number of measures, including the involvement of the US military, as well as assistance from several countries and non–governmental organizations, but concern about the spread of the virus continues to grow. Should we be afraid of Ebola? What are the risks? Let's first try to separate facts from fiction.
1. The Ebola virus will not be able to spread in rich countries.Until the moment when nurse Teresa Romero Ramos became infected with the Ebola virus in Madrid, the rich countries of Europe, North America and Asia were confident that this virus could be localized within modern medical institutions.
As Tom Frieden, director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said after confirming the first case of the disease in Dallas, "we will stop it on the approaches to our country." Such statements help to calm people down, but they should not be overestimated. No system guarantees 100% protection. The Spanish government concluded that Ramos became infected at the moment when she was taking off her protective suit, accidentally touching her glove to her face.
Like Ebola, the SARS virus can spread in hospitals, mainly due to the fact that staff are constantly in contact with infected fluids. When the SARS epidemic began in Asia in 2003, a large number of employees were infected in some hospitals, including hospitals in Hong Kong, while no cases of infection of employees were registered in nearby medical institutions where patients with SARS were also located.
Arrogance is the most serious danger for rich countries – the smug belief that modern technology and emergency preparedness plans guarantee that the Ebola virus and other viruses will not be able to spread and reach epidemic proportions. It was this arrogance that led to the fact that in 2003, leading Toronto hospitals were forced to fight SARS after the virus was defeated in much poorer Vietnam. It was this arrogance that forced the participants of the World Health Assembly in 2013 to cut the WHO budget to fight epidemics in favor of programs to fight cancer and heart disease. And it is this arrogance that causes politicians to cut government funding every time dangerous germs seem to be under control, and to despair when a new epidemic begins.
2. The level of emergency preparedness that the United States achieved after the September 11 attacks makes them ready to fight the Ebola virus.After the September 11 terrorist attacks and letters with anthrax spores sent to US political and military institutions, the George W. Bush administration initiated a large-scale review of bioterrorism preparedness programs.
Starting with the Civil Defense Committee and ending with local free hospitals, doctors, nurses, all medical institutions and ambulance crews have undergone special training courses, during which they worked out an action plan for pandemics and acts of bioterrorism. At that time, many instructions and plans were implemented that were supposed to prepare all American health departments for the appearance of infectious viruses. Military and health agencies have received billions of dollars to create rapid diagnostic systems, vaccines and medicines to combat highly pathogenic microorganisms. The Ebola virus is listed in all lists of dangerous viruses. That is why many believe that thanks to billions of dollars and countless trainings and exercises, the United States is ready for its appearance.
However, during most of these exercises – both military and civilian – a scenario with the biological equivalent of a terrorist attack was played out, when something dangerous was discovered, then police officers, fire services and medical institutions appeared in protective suits – and hooray! Infected people have been identified, isolated and cured, and there is no danger to society anymore. Even in 2005, when the White House feared that an extremely contagious avian influenza virus could spread throughout America, emergency plans focused on isolating the virus and its carriers, like isolating a bomb or chemical weapons. However, these plans did not take into account the need for long-term care for an infectious patient, during which medical staff repeatedly come into contact with him, risking infection.
Today, the response of the US Agency for International Development to requests for assistance from West Africa is as follows: "At the moment we do not have personnel who have experience in treating this disease."
3. The Ebola virus can be spread by airborne droplets.Yes, the virus is constantly mutating – an article recently published in the journal Science says that there are more than 300 of its mutations.
However, the virus that is now attached to the receptors of endothelial cells lining the organs of the circulatory system will not be able to turn into a virus that will cling to the alveolar cells of the lungs. Such changes belong to the category of science fiction.
Viruses mutate for two reasons: random error and natural selection. A random mutation of a virus that affects exclusively the cells lining the blood vessels into a virus that can attach to completely different classes of proteins that exist in the lungs is almost impossible. Natural selection is able to overcome the border of the impossible if the virus population is threatened with complete destruction, as a result of which it can either mutate or die. However, in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea, the Ebola virus is not in danger: it spreads freely and infects thousands of people without experiencing any need to switch to a radically new form.
A much more realistic and alarming circumstance is that the outer shell of the virus – those parts of it to which the human immune system reacts, producing antibodies and killer cells - can respond to the attacks of the immune system by mutating its outer proteins. If Ebola undergoes such changes, it may lead to the fact that people who have had this fever may become infected with it again, and the vaccines currently in development will be ineffective.
4. Entry bans will prevent the Ebola virus from spreading in the United States.The only proof that visa bans in the 21st century can slow down the spread of the virus appeared immediately after September 11, when all airports in the eastern United States were closed for many days, and some Americans could not travel far from home for several weeks.
Perhaps as a result of these measures, the flu season came two weeks later in 2001. Nevertheless, the flu still came.
Over the past few years, many countries have imposed entry bans from other countries in the hope of preventing the emergence of viruses, including SARS and H1N1 swine flu viruses. But all these bans did not help, and viruses penetrated into countries, no matter how radical the government's measures to combat them were.
The days when medical control on Ellis Island and Angel Island allowed for the effective identification of sick immigrants are a thing of the past due to the beginning of the era of jet transport.
5. A vaccine against the Ebola virus will appear very soon.Currently, several variants of the Ebola vaccine are in development, two of which have recently received the green light from the WHO Special Scientific Council.
This authorization means that potential vaccines are already being tested on volunteers at the moment. If, after a few weeks of such trials, no serious side effects of these vaccines are detected, the trials will move to a new stage, perhaps in those countries where there is an epidemic of the virus, during which scientists will check whether the vaccine can protect people from infection. If at this stage scientists come to the conclusion that the vaccine protects people from infection with the Ebola virus, the process of its development will enter the final, most difficult phase, namely, the phase of clinical trials, when the effectiveness of the vaccine is determined in comparison with placebo on the example of hundreds of people living in the epidemic zone.
The question I most often hear from vaccine manufacturers in connection with Ebola is as follows: how will people dressed in special protective suits that make them look like space aliens be able to make healthy residents of Liberia and Sierra Leone, scared to death, stand still waiting for an injection in the arm?
At best, the vaccine may be ready by the spring of 2015 – but at the same time it will be necessary to somehow resolve the issue of trust.
Laurie Garrett is a senior fellow in the Global Health Program at the Council on Foreign Relations. Her new book is called "I Heard the Sirens Scream: How Americans Responded to the 9/11 and Anthrax Attacks" ("I heard sirens wailing: how Americans reacted to the September 11 terrorist attacks and the outbreak of anthrax").
Portal "Eternal youth" http://vechnayamolodost.ru13.10.2014