What does the "Horvath clock" show?
"Epigenetic clock" allows you to predict life expectancy
Sergey Kolenov, Hi-tech+
Science will never be able to predict the exact date of a person's death, but today the analysis of genetic and epigenetic data allows us to calculate the approximate period of his life. This information is useful not only for doctors, but also for insurance companies.
According to Steve Horvath, a biostatistician at the University of California, Los Angeles, the rate of aging can be calculated from epigenetic marks on the surface of DNA.
Methyl groups –CH3 attach to individual nucleotides, for example, cytosine, and change the activity of genes. With age, the pattern of methylation changes, according to MIT Technology Review (Want to know when you're going to die?).
For example, if the "epigenetic age" is 8 years higher than the passport age, the risk of death from cancer, heart disease and other aging diseases is doubled, and vice versa.
After analyzing 13,000 blood samples collected decades ago from people who had already died, Horvath's team concluded that the "epigenetic clock" successfully predicts the approximate time of death. The technique works best with young people, and the accuracy of predictions decreases in the elderly. However, so far the scientist has no clinical evidence of the effectiveness of DNAm GrimAge.
Horvath found that epigenetic aging is 40% determined by heredity, and another 60% by luck and lifestyle. Eating vegetables and fish slows down the epigenetic clock, and insomnia accelerates. This is a predictable result, but DNAm GrimAge came to several unusual conclusions.
For example, it turned out that regular exercise can add only a few extra months to a potential life span.
The scientist hopes that the "epigenetic clock" will be able to be made accurate enough to reflect changes in lifestyle and behavior. This will allow us to check the effectiveness of the drugs being developed to combat aging.
Insurance companies have also become interested in the methodology. Currently, insurers use the gender and age of people, as well as some health indicators and bad habits, such as smoking, to calculate the life span. The epigenetic clock will make their predictions more accurate.
However, the new approach raises a number of questions about fairness. For example, should a client pay a higher rate for life insurance if the course of his epigenetic clock accelerated through no fault of his own? The law protecting against genetic discrimination has been in force in the USA for 10 years, but it does not apply to epigenetic data.
There is also a privacy issue. Life expectancy is information that many consider very personal. However, the current privacy policy does not yet protect such data.
Despite the ethical problems, the methods of "predicting death" will continue to develop. According to experts, in five to ten years, healthcare systems that do not use them to improve medical care will be considered obsolete.
Epigenetic changes affect not only the life expectancy of parents, but also the health of their children and even grandchildren. For example, a study on mice showed that nicotine exposure to the father causes cognitive disorders even in the second generation of his descendants.
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