Crisis: the worst is ahead
Rosstat data show that the crisis has moved into the real sector of the economy. Anatoly Chubais, head of Rusnano State Corporation, former finance minister and first deputy prime minister of the Russian government, said in an interview with The New Times that the scale of the strike is unprecedented: it cannot be compared with either the collapse of the 91st or the default of the 98th.
Then there was a crisis in Asia, Russia, the CIS countries and Latin America. Now it is the United States, China, India, and Europe, Chubais said and assessed the risks: 50% are for the fact that the political and economic system that has developed over the past 8 years will withstand them, and 50% – that Russia will face serious shocks: both economic and social, it is possible that political.
Some experts believe that the Russian authorities were late in responding to the crisis; that the authorities are making indisputable decisions, for example, to allocate billions of dollars of loans to oligarchic businesses; many argue that at such rates of spending reserves – 3% per week – the Stable Fund will be empty by the end of spring.
Chubais holds a different opinion. The essence of the global crisis, in his opinion, is consumption exceeding production, and in Russia there is also too rapid economic growth, including at the expense of credit resources. The growth rate of the Russian economy to 8.1% of GDP was excessive.
The authorities have successfully repelled the first wave of the crisis, the head of Rusnano believes. Over the past 2.5 months, the country has avoided the enormous risk of collapse of the banking system. In a month and a half, the government pumped one and a half trillion rubles into the banking system," Chubais says. "Of these, probably a trillion "flew" to the West, and half a trillion – under the pillows. But if the authorities had not done this, we would not have a banking system today.
Chubais admitted that state support of the oligarchs is the right choice of the authorities, who are concerned about the social and political consequences of potential bankruptcies of their assets.
The financial crisis seems to have passed, says the former deputy Prime Minister, the banking system has resisted. The economic crisis is unfolding: "It is inevitable, it will definitely happen. Economic will turn into social exactly in the spring. Whether the social will turn into a political one is already a question of the strength of the system that has been built over the past 8 years," Chubais summed up.
Chubais' opinion was voiced in an absentee discussion with political scientist Stanislav Belkovsky, who believes that Russia "has come to its civilizational decline, and the economic crisis in the Russian Federation is only one of the forms of this phenomenon."
The political scientist believes that today the political class is not concerned about the fate in Russia, it discusses any issues except the most important ones. So, in his opinion, the introduction of amendments to the Constitution of the Russian Federation, increasing the powers of the president, is also a secondary issue, the real purpose of which is the desire to distract from the serious consequences of the economic crisis, which today takes on a comprehensive character.