Do business on life extension
The life expectancy market is projected to reach $60 billion by 2025.
Gene Kolesnikov, PhiltechInitiative expert, co–founder of the Moscow branch of Singularity University, visionary of artificial intelligence, robotics and technological singularity, is confident that investing in the development of the life expectancy market is one of the most promising investment tools. Unfortunately, so far projects from the field of biotech in Russia are not developing very actively:
– We live in a fantastic time! Many experts predict that in the next 15 years, the centennial threshold of life may well become the norm, not the exception. If we don't run in the rain of bricks, then it will become a reality: to meet 100 years not in a bed with tubes, but in a more or less normal condition. But to achieve this goal, changes are needed. The question is which ones?
Obviously, first of all, we are talking about the development of the life expectancy market. Unfortunately, investments in biotechnology in Russia are not very popular yet. In the first half of 2019, Russian biotech startups raised $5.1 million, closing only two deals. For comparison: in the world during the same time, 1,700 transactions totaling $21 billion were made in the biotech market. Against the background of this result, our "successes" are a conversation about nothing. But what I particularly like is that the forecasts of Western experts are much bolder than ours. According to their estimates, by 2025, the life expectancy market will reach $60 billion!
The life expectancy market is so huge that today, relatively speaking, it is possible to invent a mobile application that will track individual markers and human actions, sell it by subscription for $ 1 dollar a month, attract 1 billion people – and earn a billion so.
What are the developers focusing on today? First of all, on early diagnostics, on technologies that are already close to a person in the form of phones, gadgets and sensors, therapy, management of acquired knowledge, on BigData. Some startups invest in the development of artificial intelligence, counting not only on the fact that "robots will conquer us", but also on the fact that they will help current doctors. For example, specialists use machine learning to better diagnose various diseases. There are already huge breakthroughs and top companies in each of these areas. One of the startups recently raised $60 million to make a chat where consultations will be provided by medical chatbots together with doctors.
We already clearly understand that by introducing early diagnosis and regenerative therapy, we can prolong life. If you look at the analytics of life expectancy in different countries, you can see: if you live in Switzerland, you will live 20 years longer today than in Russia. This does not mean that everything is bad with medicine, but that people check themselves more often there, taking care of their health, that the healthcare infrastructure is better synchronized with each other there. We still have to go to this.
Monitoring systems have already appeared on the American market in the form of tablets that read a person's condition in a constant mode. They are allowed to be used in the clinic. Genome editing, which virtually all modern doctors oppose, is still for the benefit of humanity. In my opinion, the attempt to regulate this topic repeats the situation with restrictions introduced in Europe and England when cars appeared. As a result, it took these countries 15 years to catch up with the United States in terms of motorization. Gene therapy is what humanity needs. Working with cells allows you to grow skin, technologies are developing that will make it possible to print different organs in the future. Experiments have already been carried out proving the possibility of increasing memory with the help of implants, work is underway on technologies for reading and uploading information to the brain. The Russian reality is pushing the industry to develop chips for cyborgization. In our country, up to 700 thousand car accidents occur annually. Victims of road accidents experience difficulties due to loss of motor skills and partial paralysis, and this drives the development of the exoskeleton segment.
Sooner or later, all these technologies will become widespread and publicly available. And all this will be used by a person whose habitat will change dramatically. In his universe, there will be no need to leave the house, go to the clinic, to the shops. Through services and subscriptions, he will receive everything he needs remotely, as well as with delivery. This will completely change the algorithms of human interaction with the external environment. For example, he will be able to solve most of the health-related issues through medical chatbots. Already, all laptops and smartphones have cameras that allow you to visually recognize the microemotions of the interlocutor with an accuracy of about 70%. Everything related to our nervous type of activity can be diagnosed by voice, and now this technology is constantly being improved. That is, consultation with a live doctor will be necessary in emergency cases. England plans to launch a swarm of drones by 2022. Imagine that urgent medical care will be delivered to you not with the help of a car and a doctor, but using logistics (or delivery) by drone. This is amazing!
What will constant health monitoring give us? If we collect and track data throughout a person's life, we will get a huge database of information and will be able to predict a lot, up to when and why he may be admitted to the hospital. If this system is debugged, then gradually, in principle, we can remove the clinic, since early diagnosis will lead to the fact that a person will never be treated. If he knows in advance what is happening to him, he can print and replace the organs that will fail. We can already work for this future today.
According to forecasts, by 2050 a person will be able to live up to 120 years without losing working capacity. And here another question arises. Today we plan our life up to 60 years. If this the term will increase, then what will you do for the second half of your life? Think about it now. If people start thinking more about tomorrow, it will help more industries, ranging from biotechnology to robotics.
The material was prepared on the basis of the speaker's speeches at the OpenBio forum.
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