122 years and 156 days
Scientists have returned to the "Kalman phenomenon" – the world record of longevity
Natalia Panasenko, Rossiyskaya Gazeta
Scientists from the Geneva University Clinic (Switzerland) together with French colleagues, providing "historical and epidemiological evidence of longevity" of Jeanne Kalman, thus prove that she really died at the age of 122 years and 156 days, reports NZZ.
More than twenty years after the death of the oldest centenarian on Earth, scientists were forced to conduct a new historical and demographic study in connection with the statement of their Russian colleagues, in particular mathematician Nikolai Zak, who in 2018 questioned the fact of her longevity.
Russian scientists have put forward a hypothesis about fraud, providing several proofs of forgery. According to them, Jeanne Kalman died back in 1934, and her daughter Yvonne began to impersonate her mother in order not to pay property tax, and thus lived up to 99 years under a false name. Yvonne officially died in 1934 from tuberculosis.
In addition, the case of Zhanna Kalman is out of the general statistics, according to Russian scientists, and it is statistically impossible to reach the age of 122.
A Franco-Swiss team of scientists, in response to Zack's mathematical model, developed their own probabilistic mathematical model based on demographic data. They reported on the results of their research in an article published recently in the Journal of Gerontology (Robine et al., The real facts supporting Jeanne Calment as the oldest ever human).
Jean-Marie Robin from the French National Institute of Health and Medical Research (Inserm) and the Higher School of Practical Research also participated in the study. Back in 1998, he presented historical evidence of Kalman's longevity – he researched her case and wrote several works, repeatedly met with her before her death to confirm the status of the oldest person on Earth. "The conspiracy theory of Russian scientists casts doubt on my work," Robin is quoted by NZZ.
In a new study, scientists analyzed historical and demographic data from scratch. A team led by Francois Herman from the University of Geneva studied in detail the mathematical hypothesis of Nikolai Zak.
To answer the question of whether it is possible to live up to 122 years, Herman's colleagues developed a mathematical model based on demographic data. They analyzed the life expectancy of people born in France in 1875, the year of Kalman's birth. And also those born in 1903: none of them survived. Based on these data, the researchers calculated the probability of how many people can live to the age of 100, 101, 102 years and so on.
This probability was used to calculate the maximum longevity and ranged from 119 to 123 years. Herman summarized: about one in 10 million people can live to 123 years. Yes, the probability is extremely small, but still statistically possible.
At the time of Kalman's death, the next centenarian was ten years younger than her. However, since then, one centenarian has turned 119 years old, and five others have turned 117 years old. "The gap is getting smaller," says Herman. "Kalman was just ahead of her time."
In addition, scientists have provided several official documents from different periods of Kalman's life, which confirm the identity of the Frenchwoman. The researchers also write that the respected Kalman family was too well-known in the town of Arles for the daughter to impersonate her mother.
According to Robin, a lucky combination of circumstances helped Jeanne Kalman to live to such an advanced age, namely: good heredity (many of her ancestors, including her brother, were long-livers), a prosperous environment and ... just luck.
However, since Kalman's grandson died in a car accident young and left no offspring, further study of the phenomenon of longevity of this family is impossible.
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