Our Gerontocratic Future
How will the world of gerontocrats be arranged
Youth will continue until the age of 35, and adulthood will begin at the age of 50. A study of current centenarians shows who they are: mostly white, educated, women, residents of agglomerations – there will only be more of them in the future.
The contours of the future world are already visible now. Somewhere, as in Germany, the legal disability of children partially lasts up to 27 years. The average age of the first childbearing, as in France, is about 30 years, and the general rule is a family with 1, rarely 2 children. Retirement is pushed back to 70 years. "Unnatural mortality" (homicides, drug overdoses, road accidents) is sharply reduced. The value of human life is growing, and hence its duration.
In the future, these trends will finally be confirmed. In the book "Thinking Russia" (published by the Eurasia Heritage Foundation and the Press and Information Department of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, 2009), Sergey Gradirovsky, head of the HSE Socio-Economic Processes Management Laboratory, retells the concept of the American economist and one of the most influential management theorists Peter Drucker about the demographic picture of the future world.
("Thinking Russia" is not a book, but a project. The author is undoubtedly referring to one of the books published within the framework of this project, "The Human Capital of Russia and Central Asian countries: state and Forecasts" – VM.)By 2040-50, people in the First World will live in a "Lifelong Learning" society.
Peter Drucker's paradox is widely known, which states: the duration of a person's labor activity has become longer than the duration of the "life" of an average firm, a dominant technological platform, a set of professional skills that ensure personal competitiveness. Earlier, back in the 1990s, it was the opposite, which allowed you to study once and for life. National education systems designed for a different industry, a different life expectancy, a different city and other competencies are not ready to accept this challenge.
In fact, such a scheme of the life cycle of a mass person is gradually being drawn:
1. Infancy and earlier childhood gently turning into preschool training with a lot of educational games. Then the school: primary, secondary and senior, which takes a total of 12 years, mandatory for everyone, giving several languages, much better than in our time, putting communication skills and a healthy lifestyle. All this is a relative childhood up to the "passport age" of 17-18 years.
2. The second period, up to about 30 years, will be characterized by a conscious alternation of training and work. The concept of universal higher education will finally be established. At the same time, only training (without obtaining specific work skills) will not be encouraged at this age. There will be a breakdown of the currently prevailing idea that study and work are sequential actions. The LLL concept denies such a representation, throwing it into the landfill of historical ideas.
3. This is a period of maximum mobility, primarily spatial: work will be more often temporary and extensive geography (different cities and countries), and training will be characterized by encouraging educational migration (an actively created credit-modular education system, mass exchange programs are the essence of the infrastructure of the described educational mobility).
4. This is the period of maximum search – profession, knowledge, mentor, partner. Today, even in relation to such people, they say "I've played too much", "I haven't decided, but it's time". In the society of the future, this will become the norm.
5. The third period from 35 to about 50 years is the period of combining reproductive activity with a career. The vast majority will be ready to move to a more stable and legally fixed relationship by this age, which means they will enter into marriages. The average age at which a woman gives birth to her first child will most likely be in the range of 30-35 years. Education will also not be forgotten, but new priorities will be revealed in personal strategies, and one of them is new knowledge about a healthy lifestyle, the birth and upbringing of children. It is at this age that most people begin to feel the limited capabilities of their body, which means that they have an interest in the body, not only as an object of sexual attraction. All this will require new system knowledge, new acquaintances, the formation of new life habits.
6. This is the period of capitalization of the choice that a person made at the end of the second period. The time of search and permanent experiment is over. Now there is a family, which means a special kind of responsibility, which means there is a great need for stability of relationships, finances and place of residence.
7. The fourth period from 50 to about 75-80 years is the age of a wonderful "golden autumn", late and genuine maturity, when there is still strength (and someone still has a lot of strength) and many years. In other words, there is still a whole life ahead (since the age of survival for fifty–year-olds will be another 40-50 years - you can be sure of that!).
Let's remember that due to the peculiarities of demographic dynamics, this age will become the most numerous for some time and, most likely, the most influential. It is this age cohort that will determine the political style of their countries, being both the main electorate and the main ruler of thoughts. The consumption of this cohort will be distinguished by conservatism, there will be a lot of "nostalgic goods" on the shelves of supermarkets and tiny family (ethnic) shops.
This is the age when children have already grown up, have become quite independent and are "in the coming months in some of the beautiful cities of the world", although sometimes they still need your advice, but they have not yet gifted you with grandchildren.
8. The fourth age is the time of a new balance between work and leisure, without which a duration of 90-100 years is simply not possible. For women, this is the time of menopause, which means the restructuring of the whole body and a new attitude. For men, it is a time of extreme attention to the cardiovascular system. Even today, it is at this age that many men, who have finally realized their mortality, give up bad habits.
You also need to understand that medicine will allow a woman, if she wants, and at this age to have her own child (stimulating the body to produce the necessary hormones, in vitro fertilization, new techniques for preserving the fetus, if necessary, cesarean section).
The fourth age is the time of new creativity. There is a general feeling that the society of the future will appreciate two "new" creative periods – childhood and late adulthood. The children's creative period will become much more capitalized than it is today. Its results will probably be economized (therefore, they will have to be taken into account in calculating the volume of the economically active population) and will determine the future much more than today. In childhood, there is more light, unpredictability, and fun than in other ages.
Creativity of the fourth age, on the contrary, will be the creativity of experience, care for the reproduction of values and traditions will occupy a significant place in it, it will strive for environmental friendliness.
8. The fifth age is 80+. If you are not Bertrand Russell or Peter Drucker, then you are already at real rest. You are again striving to get closer to your fifty-year-old children. Your savings allow you to lead a decent lifestyle, albeit without frills, but also without hardships. If you are lucky and there is a need for this, you are the beneficiary of assistance from the younger generation of your close relatives – children or grandchildren. or maybe, on the contrary, you transfer the accumulated assets with some pleasure to their education and developing consumption.
Such will be a society with an average life expectancy of 90 years, with universal higher education, massively involved in a new culture of "lifelong education", leading a highly urbanized lifestyle, even if it takes place in a small resort or university town.
Money, property, influence will be concentrated in this stratum – among those who are about 80 years old."
A portrait of such a person at the age of 90+ can be described today. The US Census Bureau counted 53,364 people aged 100+ in its country. The share of centenarians has grown by 65.8% over the past three decades, from 32,194 people. During the same period, the total population in the United States increased by only 36.3%. That is, the growth rate of centenarians was 2 times higher than the overall population of the country.
Centenarians in the United States differ significantly from the general population. Experts have identified some of their distinctive characteristics.
First, 82.8% of centenarians were women. Women in the US also make up 61.9% of those over 80 and 72.2% of those over 90. The same trends are recorded in other developed countries. Most likely, this trend will continue after 20-30 years. Therefore, the first part of the portrait of the future gerontocrat is the predominance of women.
Centenarians are significantly less "diverse" than the US population as a whole. In 2010, 82.5% of them were white, with 72.4% of the total population. African Americans are interesting because their share of the centennial population (12.2%) is about the same as the percentage of the total American population (12.6%). Asians make up 2.5% of centenarians, while their share in the US as a whole is higher – 4.8%. Among the centenarians, 5.8% are from Latin America (16.3% of the total population). The second part of the portrait is that the gerontocracy will be dominated by whites.
Despite the fact that Americans are considered individualists, information about centenarians is directly opposite to this opinion – most of the oldest citizens preferred to share a shelter with someone from relatives. Centenarian women (35.2%) were more likely to live in a nursing home than men of the same age (18.2%). Male centenarians prefer to live with someone from relatives in the family (43.5%), while among the weaker sex there are 28.5%. The third part of the portrait is that even at the age of 100+, most Americans are socially adapted.
The vast majority of the oldest American citizens live in cities – 85.7%. In the Northeastern United States and the Midwest, the proportion of centenarians is higher than the national average. People in the Northeast tend to have a higher level of education, and education is associated with an increase in life expectancy, gerontologists say.
However, the proportion of centenarians in the United States is less than in many other developed countries. For example, for every 10,000 people in Sweden, 1.92 people have lived for more than 100 years, in England there are 1.95 and 2.7 in France. In the USA – only 1.73.
Today, the prevailing view is that the elderly are a burden to society. They require high pension and medical expenses. The book "The World in 2050", written by journalists of The Economist magazine, says the opposite.
In its Russian translation, on page 189, a table is given from which it follows that by 2050, in most countries, public spending related to age (pensions, healthcare, long–term care) will decrease compared to 2010. For example, in France from the current 31% of GDP to 24% of GDP, in Germany from 29% of GDP to 18% of GDP, in the USA from 18% of GDP to 10% of GDP, etc. Even in Russia, these costs will decrease from the current 25% of GDP to 13% of GDP in 2050 (calculations – Standard & Poor's).
The explanation for this fact is that the current small generation will retire then, while developed countries will continue to attract young migrants from the Second and Third World. Roughly speaking, the number of employees at least will not fall, or even increase, and dependents will significantly decrease.
But the most difficult times in 2050 are expected by the current Third World countries, making a rapid leap into the Second World, primarily India and China. The birth rate is falling rapidly there, and a relatively large number of old people will retire. Migration growth is not expected in these countries. In addition, a significant part of the elderly in India and China will not acquire property by that time and will be deprived of pensions (or will receive a mere meager amount). In these countries, the elderly will really become a real burden for society.
Portal "Eternal youth" http://vechnayamolodost.ru21.02.2013