Scenarios for the development of medicine – project announcement

The editorial board of STRF opens a special project dedicated to the problems of long-term forecasting of scientific and technological development of the Russian economy until 2030.

Among other topics for discussion, scenarios for the development of the medical technology sector in the context of upcoming global changes are proposed.

As a result of the work, it is assumed, in particular:

• to identify the range of basic basic and new technologies that will shape the technological appearance of key sectors, ensure the positions of Russian companies, both in foreign and domestic markets;
• to assess the possibility of the emergence of new sectors, niches and businesses in the global economy due to the emergence and use of new technologies-jokers;
• to assess the opportunities and risks of implementing various scenario options for Russia.

One of the operators for this forecast is the Interdepartmental Analytical Center (IAC), which determines, within the framework of a scenario approach, possible parameters and boundaries of changes in the technological structure of the Russian economy both in the context of sectors (existing and new) and in the context of priority panels that affect the problems of several sectors at once.

Expert working groups are formed for each of the selected areas from among representatives of leading companies. The discussion procedure is iterative in nature: first, brief theses reflecting a common vision of the state of the sector or direction in 15-20 years are discussed with a small number of experts of the highest level, then systematized and verified results are discussed in broader working groups, after which options for long-term scientific and technological development of the sector or direction are formed.

The forecast for the development of the medical technology sector is based on an assessment of changes in supply and demand in the medical technology markets. Therefore, the main focus of the analysis is the commercial development of new, emerging technologies, the conditions for their mass introduction, as well as the opportunities and limitations for their production in Russia. The potential of medical science as such, as well as arguments related to the national security of the country, are not among the issues discussed.

The following topics are proposed for discussion:

1. Global trends and scenarios for the development of the sector

• Medium-term forecast (until 2015)Long-term forecast.
• 2. Development of individual markets

• Information and computer technologies in medicineBiopharmaceutical Medicines Market
• Biomonitoring of health
• Personalized medicine
• The market of disposable medical devices and instruments.
• New technologies for the treatment of oncological diseases
• Read the full text of the proposed project for discussion in a separate article.

Portal "Eternal youth" http://vechnayamolodost.ru
05.11.2009