And the latter will be the first

It is impossible to predict academic success by genes

Irina Ziganshina, Novye Izvestia

According to a new study by Bristol University researchers, the results of which are published in the journal eLife (Morris et al., Can education be personalized using pupils’ genetic data?), the genetic data of schoolchildren do not allow predicting their academic success with sufficient accuracy.

Before coming to this conclusion, the researchers analyzed genetic analysis data and school grades of 3,500 children who participated in the study "Children of the 90s" in Bristol. Scientists compared the exam results of each child aged 7, 11, 14 and 16 years with his polygenic score – an indicator that allows a person's DNA to predict his future success in education.

The analysis showed that, although genetic assessments predicted educational success to a certain extent, these forecasts were no more accurate than those that can be built based on data such as the level of education of parents or the socio-economic status of the family.

For example, some students with a low polygenic score who participated in the study showed excellent academic success at the age of 16. Some of those who, judging by their genes, should have been among the least successful 5%, were actually among the top 5% of students. That is, it turned out to be impossible to predict how well a child will learn from his DNA.

At the population level, the researchers found that children with higher polygenic scores on average had higher exam results than children with lower polygenic scores. However, genetics proved to be useless for predicting individual educational outcomes or for personalized learning.

As the authors explain, success in education is an incredibly complex thing, depending on a large number of factors, including parents, family environment, personality, intelligence, genetics, teachers, peers, school, as well as – what is often overlooked – chance and luck. Because of this complexity, it is almost impossible to predict how effectively a particular student will manage his DNA.

The most important information for predicting future academic success, scientists believe, is how well a child did at school in early childhood. In addition, the level of education of parents is important.

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