Healers and other crooks through the eyes of a mathematician
The "battle" of extrasEXUALS
Ivan Rebrov, MK, 07/19/2009
It is known from history that when hard times begin in the state, all sorts of ailments appear on the surface. One of them is the influx of all sorts of illiterate scammers: healers, clairvoyants, sorcerers, magicians, wizards, etc. Doctor of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, specialist in probability theory Valery Zheleznyakov offers readers of MK to look at this phenomenon from a purely scientific point of view…
– I used to watch shows about extrasexuals, – says Valery Lvovich, – they made me laugh, then irritated me, and now they just infuriate me. I feel sorry for the viewers who watch this nonsense and believe. Let's start with the fact that these extrasexuals…
– Why are psychics, and not psychics?– Because the word "psychic" has the root "sense" – meaning in English, and there is no sense in their manipulations.
These extrasexuals grimace, pretending to receive some information. I claim that they do not receive any information – from nowhere. Manipulations, grimacing and shuffling of cards do not affect the likelihood of a particular situation.
For example, I saw a show where they put 20 people covered with blankets over their heads, among whom there was one boy and 19 girls. The psychics were walking around them, sniffing, doing something else – looking for the boy. Then they pulled off the covers – and it turned out that one of the "sorceresses" guessed where the boy was. The audience began to applaud: "This is a psychic!" The probability of guessing the boy is 1/20 – 5%. What follows from this? One of the mags had the opportunity to guess – 1/20, and she realized it.
If this experiment is carried out several dozen times (of course, so that everything is honest), then this extrasexual will guess on average in one case out of twenty – I would easily prove it. And then it turns out – if she guessed right, then she is a psychic!
I know a person who guessed 6 numbers out of 49 in Sportloto – the probability of this event is 1/15 000 000. That's fantastic!
In order to guess such an event with a probability of at least 1/10, you need to collect a million such extrasexuals.
But the person who guessed 6 out of 49, and the next time the probability of hitting the target with one ticket remains 1/15,000,000. No less and no more.
– What about the "Battle of Psychics" broadcasts? – The stupidity and cynicism of these programs have no limit.
One of these "magicians" stands with his back to the screen, which shows the episode: people are walking down the street. He grimaces, closes his eyes, pretending to receive some information. Then he says that there is a woman in a hat (or without a hat). The judge-parapsychologist at the same time pointedly looks at the camera: "What an extraordinary vision!"
It is possible to bring this extrasexual to the back or slightly below (it does not matter) the image of a woman in a hat or without a hat. He will guess with a probability of 1:2 – no more and no less. You only need to increase the number of tests (or the number of psychics). You can't get away from mathematics.
This psychic, as well as everyone else – shamans, sorcerers, gypsies, shuffling cards – will not be able to refute probability formulas that they do not know. All of them really don't know anything and don't know how to do anything.
– Why are you so categorical, you don't know them?– And I don't need to get acquainted with them.
If these people knew anything, they wouldn't be doing this nonsense. The same applies to astrologers and ufologists.
All these extrasexuals have three main hypostases: they don't know physics, they don't have the slightest idea about probability theory, and, as a rule, they were all struck by lightning in the past or they received a strong current discharge, after which they discovered unusual properties…
By the way, these judges – a parapsychologist, a magician and an artist – either do not understand anything, or play along with them, and most likely both. I would easily prove that these extrasexuals do not have any additional information. I would model the simplest tests and tell them in advance with what probability they would guess something.
By increasing the number of tests, I will bring them to the probability of guessing, which I will calculate in advance, regardless of whether they will do it with their eyes closed or open, with the help of the back or a lower place. By the way, this trio of judges can also take part in writing answers to test questions. They will have exactly the same probability of guessing as the extrasexuals.
– And why are there more of these extrasexuals?– Once upon a time I read the book of the Russian classic Leonov "The Thief" - it describes the life of criminals.
So, they live in the camp, communicate and remember what they did in freedom. Each of them had some kind of specialty in money-making, this specialty was called "fenya", that is, someone was a pickpocket, a burglar, a burglar, a bear hunter, etc.
The same "fenya" can be found in extrasexuals – a sorcerer, a shaman, a card shuffler, a magician, etc. One married couple even treated for a generic curse: 100% result in a few minutes - and there is no curse. Now these "feni" are shown all over the country.
In order to become an engineer, a serious scientist or a doctor, you need to go through several stages:
1. Graduate decently from school.
2. Enroll in the appropriate university.
3. Really study for 5-6 years.
4. Becoming a specialist, deepen your knowledge in graduate school, residency in a hospital or at work.
5. Become a serious specialist.
6. Create a school of your own direction in the relevant field.
There may be several more stages.
And these extrasexuals – healers, clairvoyants, specialists in different–colored magics - did not even pass the first stage. They chose a "fenya" for themselves – and, I repeat, they litter television and the media with their nonsense.
In newspapers, magazines, on the Internet, on television, ads of funny scammers solving everyday problems of humanity occupy a huge place: removal of damage, the evil eye, treatment of all diseases, the return of a husband or wife, the complete destruction of a lover or mistress – 100% result, of course.
Here is an example: "I will enchant for life (the result is 100% on the day of treatment), I will get rid of rivals in love and business forever, I guarantee 100% success. A powerful conspiracy for good luck." What's it like?..
What are the media trying to achieve? So that young people do not study in institutes, but walk around the field during the rain in order to be struck by lightning – and the path to clairvoyants, healers, soothsayers, magicians, etc. is open? One can imagine these "specialists"...
– Have you tried to participate in such TV shows?– Once upon a time I worked at a regime enterprise.
In each such institution, representatives from the army worked – the so-called military representatives, who had great powers. And at that time there was a boom of psychics, parapsychologists, thought guessers, clairvoyants, predictors, etc.
And one of the military officials came up with the idea that these "superhumans" could be useful to intelligence, since they can read other people's thoughts from a distance. Idiotic experiments began, hype in the media.
Two people read each other's thoughts at a distance! One was placed on a submarine, and the second somewhere on the shore guessed which objects were in the hands of the "submariner". The one who was on the shore said some nonsense - for example, that now a person on a submarine has something green or round in his hands.
This couple was brought to our institute. I didn't take one of them to the submarine, but put him behind the door and gave him three cardboard boxes with three drawings: a circle, a square and a triangle. The first one, who had one of the three drawings in his hands, puffed up, strained and thought about the image. The second idiot behaved about the same way (very similar to our psychics) – he tried to accept the thought from a distance. And I guessed what the first one had in his hand – but with a scientific probability: exactly 1:3. This becomes clear if you just conduct the experiment longer.
By the way, after the tests I conducted at the institute, the military representatives stopped being interested in these "superhumans".
Later, I was somehow invited to TNT, and one smart person recorded my interview. Naturally, she realized that everything I was saying was the truth. But that's exactly what they didn't need. That's why I didn't manage to participate in these programs, although I would really like to have fun. Then I accidentally saw a fragment of this program, where the psychics found out the cause of Yesenin's death. One of them said that Yesenin was killed: he appeared to her in a dream and told her about it himself. Agree, not bad!
There are criminology, history, probability theory. It is specialists in these fields who should be doing this, and not dense extrasexuals.
– Maybe you believe in fate?– The answer should be obvious to you: there is no set destiny and there cannot be.
What kind of fatalism?! A man drowned in Sochi – this, they say, is his fate: a drowned man! And if he hadn't gone, the fate would have been different. In Sochi, out of three million vacationers, four people drowned in two years. So, on average, for a vacationer, the probability of drowning is 1/750,000. What does fate have to do with it? And on an airplane to crash in one flight is about the same probability. This is statistics, not fate.
One citizen said that a rock hung over him (a note from the newspaper). His mother died on the 22nd, his father also on the 22nd and some other relative on the 22nd - all three on the same date. For him, this is some kind of fate, but in fact it can be easily explained from the point of view of probability theory. The probability that three people will die in one day is about 1/900. That is, if you take a million families, then somewhere in a thousand or so families, three will die on the same day of the month, you can be sure. In every thousandth family there will be such a situation.
Everything, absolutely everything that happens in the world is subject to the laws of probability theory. And you can't get away from them. And the extrasexuals who don't understand anything about this science are trying to refute it.
I do not deny: it can be assumed that a thinking person has, for example, some kind of movement of matter. A person who raises his hand up receives a command from the brain. There are some micro-micro processes. Maybe someday people will learn to recognize them. But this will be done by the Einsteins, Landau, Sakharov of the future, and not by semi-literate scammers.
After all, if you take two people standing next to each other, then they are attracted to each other with a force of 1/10, 000, 000, 000 kg – there is a gravitational attraction. But this force cannot be measured: there are no such sensitive devices yet. But in the end, such devices will be invented by serious physicists. And it will be possible to detect a person behind the wall who creates some kind of additional micro-micropole. But I repeat: scientists will be able to do this, not psychic scammers.
People turn to them hoping for something, and then complain that they wasted their money. All these amulets, amulets, talismans do not affect anything, they can be considered as a trinket-decoration, nothing more. What cannot be explained scientifically is nonsense. After all, all this "extrasensory" husk and our naive belief in a miracle really prevent science from understanding an unusual phenomenon.
For example, it was believed that ball lightning is someone else's life, the machinations of the devil or the devil, heavenly punishment, etc., and scientists figured it out – it turned out to be an ellipsoidal plasma clot formed at high voltage, or, according to another hypothesis, a Rydberg substance (this scientific version is not yet final).
It's easier to believe in some kind of miracle than to understand it, to blame everything on aliens, what these slacker ufologists are doing. But this is a separate topic.
Recently, in one of the last "MK", there was an article about Messing: they say, he guessed some political processes - the beginning or end of the war, the death of some famous person, etc. But these events can be anticipated by any literate person, with about the same probability. But when Messing guessed the full name of the person sitting in the hall during the performance, it was a clear trick, a small, thoughtless fraud. I knew a man who sat in the hall during the performance for 25 rubles, and Messing skillfully brought the audience to him.
When Kio showed magic tricks or Copperfield flew under the ceiling – it is clear to the public that these are magic tricks. These great masters of the show will never "science" them. Copperfield doesn't claim to be defeating gravity. And all these junes, lillians, chumaks (common names), as well as healers, extrasexuals, soothsayers, clairvoyants, sorcerers and even shamans are certainly trying to bring a scientific basis for their nonsense!
By the way, besides these stupid ads in the media about all kinds of healers, many idiotic commercials were filmed.
A few years ago, Natalia Fateeva – a good actress with a very beautiful figure – starred against the background of two aunts with crooked faces who stood behind her, twisting their hands and grimacing, depicting some kind of treatment…
– Did you say with a very beautiful figure? What, does it matter?– Of course, with such a figure it is better to advertise clothes than these ridiculous and illiterate scammers.
Vakhtang Kikabidze, a very charismatic singer with an extraordinary repertoire, advertises a zirconium bracelet that lowers blood pressure. If you wear this sophisticated bracelet on your arm, leg, or just keep it in the nightstand, the effect will be the same. But, fortunately, the bracelet did not go on sale.
And the wonderful artist Livanov advertises a talisman that helps in business, personal and public life... What can you do – our outstanding artists are forced to earn extra money.A few days ago, at about three o'clock in the morning, I turned on the TV – in my opinion, Channel 8 - and there some crooked people give advice to mobile phone subscribers (from which you can quickly withdraw money).
Some kind of fraudster with shifty eyes is sitting, shuffling cards, someone calls her and asks: does he have damage? And she takes out three cards from the deck, throws them on the table, and before that (for persuasiveness) is interested in your name, age. This information, coupled with three cards, is quite enough for her to conduct a complex "diagnosis" and give an answer.
Moreover, there are many of these respondents, and each has its own code after the main subscriber. Each specialist (and their names are one more complicated than the other: astropsychologist, cosmoenergetic, tarologist, etc., there is even an "artifact contactee") carries some nonsense for a couple of minutes, and during this time several hundred rubles are withdrawn from the subscriber's account…
In no case – especially if you have serious health problems – do not contact them: you will only lose precious time. To treat your most complex ailments, this gop company, instead of medical specialists and modern sophisticated equipment (X-ray, tomography, oncological diagnostics, etc.), will offer to use amulets, amulets, talismans, cards, etc. - they have no equal in these trinkets…
Portal "Eternal youth" http://vechnayamolodost.ru22.07.2009