Pseudoscience: danger rating
The 10 most dangerous misconceptions, pseudosciences and superstitions
This rating was obtained by summarizing expert assessments of the dangers of drugs according to 16 criteria. The Olympic Games ended with great success for Russia, and we decided to use a similar method for the subsequent Special Olympics: to assess the danger of existing misconceptions, pseudoscience and superstitions (ZPS) in order to distribute obscurantism medals.
The diversity of the ZPS in Russia is huge: the fear of biometric passports, the idea that Atlantis did not even "drown, but flew away", that all the peoples of the world descended from Russians, the discovery of alien messages in the printer, hell in the Sun, and even the belief in the blessing of Seraphim of Sarov with a pot. Separately, it is worth mentioning dowsing (detection of hidden objects usually located underground, such as cavities, water sources, mineral deposits, "geopathogenic zones", "lines of magical power", etc. with the help of a vine, a special frame, a pendulum or other devices), not only on the ground, but even on Google Maps.
In order to achieve a more adequate and unbiased assessment of the danger of the SDS, experts were invited: readers of the scinquisitor blog dedicated to the analysis of pseudoscientific concepts and misconceptions, as well as readers and administrators of intellectual and skeptical resources, such as The Brights movement, the Scientists against Pseudoscience community and the Skeptic's Dictionary. The number of experts included 75 people, including 19 people with academic degrees. Note: this does not mean that each of the mentioned experts fully shares the final ZPS hazard rating. In order to avoid bias on the part of experts and not to attract the attention of the reptiloid lobby from the planet Nibiru, the experts were not informed of the ultimate goal of the study.
The experts were offered a questionnaire containing 10 points concerning the prevalence of SDS and their social impact, as well as several supporting questions. Each expert had to nominate up to three ZPS for each item. For example, "the most popular ZPS in Russia". Similar in meaning nominations were subsequently generalized. For example, the term New Age includes many practices for the development and purification of the chakras, "energy improvement", "astral flights" and so on. The term "paranormal" included the belief in spirits, ghosts, ghosts and zombies. Similarly, the term "world conspiracy" includes both theories about the world government of the Freemasons and "lizards" and a conspiracy about the fabrication of the flight of Americans to the moon and stories about chemical trails – traces of aircraft, which are not just traces of aircraft, but sprayed by the occupying government of toxic chemicals. In some cases, prominent areas of pseudoscience, on the contrary, were separated from a more general term. For example, homeopathy is presented separately from the rest of alternative medicine, although formally homeopathy is also an "alternative medicine", i.e. medicine about which either it has not been proven that it works, or it has been proven that it does not work. What is the name of the medicine that has been proven to work? That's right: medicine.
Of course, the boundaries between some ZPS are quite blurred due to the lack of generally accepted definitions, but with the help of additional questions it was often possible to clarify exactly what each expert had in mind. The final sample of the considered PPS included only those PPS that were nominated by at least five experts, and at least two experts on the same item of the questionnaire.
As a result, a list of 39 misconceptions, superstitions and pseudoscience was obtained. The assessment of the relative danger of misconceptions, pseudoscience and superstitions was measured in centimetrics in honor of Viktor Petrik, the author of numerous pseudoscientific inventions, who was nominated by the largest number of experts (15 nominations) for the title of the most active figure of pseudoscience, an opponent of enlightenment and scientific progress. The second place in this race was taken by the folk healer and current president of the Russian Academy of Obscurantism and Pseudoscience Gennady Malakhov (13 nominations), the third place went to Patriarch Kirill (12 nominations), and the honorable fourth place was shared by Archpriest Vsevolod Chaplin and Irina Ermakova. The latter made a significant contribution to the development of pseudoscience thanks to the theory of the origin of men from women through a transitional form in the person of hermaphrodite Amazons, as well as the popularization of misconceptions about the harm of genetically modified organisms (10 nominations each).
100 centimetrics, or one Petrik, is a value approximately equal to the danger of one of the types of ZPS: pseudoscientific inventions (coincidentally, Figure 1).
Figure 1. Rating of the danger of misconceptions, pseudoscience and superstitionsOne Petrik, as we found out, is not very much.
The calculation of the danger occurs as follows. For each item of the questionnaire, the number of ZPS that have been nominated for this item by as many or fewer experts is determined for each ZPS. The points are summed up according to the questionnaire items reflecting expert assessments of the popularity of the ZPS (in Russia and among acquaintances), damage to health (in general and among acquaintances), damage to education, financial damage (in Russia and caused to acquaintances) and the degree of imposition of the ZPS by the media. From this number, points corresponding to expert estimates of the curability and self-curability of the ZPS are deducted. In addition, points for nomination are added to the danger of each ZPS: the number of ZPS that were nominated for at least one item by a smaller or equal number of experts. The absurdity of the ZPS was not taken into account when calculating their danger, but was analyzed separately (Figure 2).
Figure 2. The absurdity of misconceptions, pseudoscience and superstitionOn the 10th place of the ZPS danger rating is the idea of a global conspiracy.
The world conspiracy has received a high danger rating due to its popularity and the amount of damage that this ZPS causes to education. Indeed, if there is a worldwide conspiracy, how can you believe teachers at school, scientific research, doctors' recommendations? The enemies of the people want to commit genocide, and we are next! Reptiloids are not asleep! The popularity of ideas about a global conspiracy is closely related to the popularity of other ZPS. Indeed, without a global conspiracy, it is impossible to explain why scientists so unanimously claim that humans and chimpanzees had a common ancestor. Without a conspiracy, it is impossible to explain why studies are published on the uselessness of homeopathy compared to placebo, why articles appear that there is no need to be afraid of GMOs, and HIV is a real virus that causes AIDS. World conspiracies are very absurd and adherence to them, alas, is practically incurable. If you think about it, it's natural, because everyone who criticizes your conspiracy theory is himself a participant in the conspiracy, a member of the Masonic lodge, a filthy reptilian and a relative of Rockefeller! You can't even believe yourself: what if some kind of chip is implanted in your head?
Pseudoscientific diets are on the 9th place of the rating. This item includes a belief in the usefulness of veganism, exclusive raw food, separate nutrition, hemocode nutrition, weight loss pills that have not passed clinical trials, taking unjustified amounts of vitamins, overpaying for "everything natural" and even trying to eat exclusively with the energy of the sun. Naturally, some such diets can be detrimental to health and wallet, which was noted by experts.
On the 8th place of the rating is the New Age direction. Chakras, detoxification, meditation, the search for enlightenment through oversaturation of the brain with oxygen during holotropic breathing or taking questionable psychoactive substances. Here, the use of Cherokee hair as tampons and other funny nonsense. In fact, any occult, mystical or naturopathic practice that did not fit into more specific categories fell here. We are dealing with a kind of garbage dump of various occult junk, which is becoming very popular and demanding to the wallet. Caution: may be dangerous to health.
Dietary supplements or biologically active additives are on the 7th place of the rating. These substances mimic drugs, that is, they are presented as something useful, important for the prevention of diseases, they often lie on adjacent shelves with effective drugs. In fact, unlike normal medications, dietary supplements do not undergo clinical trials, i.e. their usefulness is at least questionable. They can be expensive and dangerous to health.
On the 6th place of the rating is the widespread dislike of genetically modified organisms among the masses. This extremely absurd ZPS is forcibly imposed on the layman through the media. This misconception is not dangerous for health and, by the way, it is easy to treat: sometimes it is enough to clearly explain what GMOs are and why GMOs are not more dangerous than biological organisms with unknown genes that we constantly use. But it is difficult to out-shout the central media, defending the position of the "green lobby", ignorant politicians and traders of so-called "organic" products, which, in general, are no better or worse than ordinary or transgenic, only more expensive. Hence the financial damage. The point is not so much that GMOs are vital in our country, but that all this hysteria around GMOs goes into the hands of outright charlatans as a good marketing tool.
On the 5th place of the rating is extrasensory perception, belief in a person's superpowers, for example, in the ability to read thoughts. The dangers of this delusion lurk "a little everywhere." Sometimes psychics are asked to find a missing person. When such a request is made by the police, it can reduce the chances of finding a person alive because any "professional" interaction with a psychic, with any psychic, is a waste of precious time. Well, money is wasted.
On the 4th place of the rating is homeopathy, or rather, homeopathy of ultra-small dilutions. This is a separate area of alternative medicine, which tries to sell pills to consumers that contain nothing but sugar. Oddly enough, many supporters of homeopathy managed to convince. Perhaps this is facilitated by such a comparison that James Randy came up with: the homeopathic solution-the record holder has a dilution of 750C – it's like taking a milled grain of rice, dissolving it in a sphere of water with a volume of our Solar System centered in the middle of the Sun and the end beyond the orbit of Pluto ... and repeating this procedure 2 billion times. Homeopathy is very popular, a huge amount of money is spent on it (including from the budget), and the harm to health is primarily due to the fact that people forget about normal treatment.
Note: Sometimes homeopathy is confused with herbal treatment. Sometimes there are homeopathic remedies without ultra-small dilutions. A priori, it is impossible to say that these drugs work or do not work, you need to understand each individual case. Homeopathy of ultra-small dilutions, for example, ocillococcinum cannot work beyond the placebo effect for obvious reasons: there is not a single molecule of the active substance.
The bronze medal of obscurantism is awarded to folk medicine and healing. These areas are singled out separately from the rest of alternative medicine in order to emphasize their traditionality. This may be a spell of sores from the grandmother, or maybe eating some "healing" mushrooms or decoctions, which often turn out to be toxic. The danger to health is maximum, the popularity is huge, and the media advertises this nonsense through pseudoscientific programs about health.
The silver medal of obscurantism is awarded to religion (traditional religion). The only significant reason why religion lost to alternative medicine in the race for the gold medal of obscurantism is that it seems to be easier to get rid of religiosity. In any case, many who were religious in childhood, cease to be so when they grow up. Perhaps the fact that religion is in the first place in the rating of absurdity also plays a role here. Perhaps this happens the same way as with faith in Santa Claus, one of the experts recalled about the child's faith in him. It is also interesting that the largest number of experts mentioned religion in the questionnaire: 51 out of 75 nominated religion for at least one item of the questionnaire.
It is difficult to overestimate the market of the religious industry in Russia. These are huge financial flows of "voluntary donations" for church infrastructure, icons, rituals and rituals. Damage to health is provided by long standing in cold winter for the sake of communion with sacred artifacts like the belt of the Virgin or the Gifts of the Magi. At the same time, due to the mass congestion of pilgrims, infections can spread. There are also harmful bacteria that can live in "holy springs" and "holy water". Many are trying to replace emergency medical care with prayer or hope for divine intervention. The damage from religion to modern education is also difficult to overestimate. This is, first of all, the introduction of theology departments in a number of universities and the foundations of religious culture in schools. Meanwhile, the central media are working hard on this obscurantism nightmare.
Finally, the gold medal of Obscurantism is awarded for the highest hazard rating of alternative medicine. This is all a huge variety of methods of recovery, which either obviously do not work, or the efficiency of which has not been proven. Cucumber treatment, without tearing off the tops, from hemorrhoids? You are welcome! Injections of "charged" water? Give me two! This also includes acupuncture and manual therapy, which deserve, if not categorical criticism, then at least skeptical attitude. How do I find out if the technique has been tested? If you speak English, it is recommended to type the name of the technique into the PubMed database of medical and scientific literature, or at least read Wikipedia and check for links to PubMed with positive conclusions about the effectiveness of the method. You can also go to any of the skeptical resources listed at the beginning of this article with a question. But by default, remember: alternative medicine is not safe for your health and for your wallet.
Among the drawbacks of the used approach to assessing the danger of ZPS, it can be noted that many ZPS are not heard of and could have been forgotten about them, as well as the fact that some of the above ZPS could not be considered as ZPS by some experts (although this may even be a plus). It is also necessary to understand the relativity of the ZPS danger scale used: the difference in the danger rating twice does not mean at all that one misconception is twice as dangerous as another (the meaning of such a statement is not very clear). Comparisons using the above rating can only be of the form "ZPS is more dangerous or less dangerous than another ZPS".
While it is useful to have at least approximate estimates of the danger of ZPS, another important task of compiling such ratings is to help people who are passionate about some of the listed ZPS realize in which "company" they find themselves. Perhaps this will make someone think and recheck the facts on the basis of which he trusts some dubious idea. After all, many experts wrote that they used to have misconceptions that they managed to get rid of.
Someone may say that some day there will be scientific confirmations of some phenomena related to the ZPS. Perhaps. Science is constantly evolving, and we can only talk about modern scientific ideas. But in most cases, the point is not that the ideas themselves are absurd (although, excuse me, some are very absurd), but in the methods by which they try to justify these ideas. If someone wants to test the ideas of astrologers with accurate scientific methods, taking into account all the nuances of competent statistical analysis and representative samples, please. Who's in the way? Another question is that in practice this does not happen, and we see only apophenia (the discovery of relationships where there are none) supporters of astrology. If someone wants to search for extraterrestrial life on other planets, if someone is interested in it and he is able to do it without giving out blurred spots and clouds for aliens, and without going off the rails, why not? If someone has come up with a new bioactive supplement and wants to prove that it prolongs life in careful experiments on animals, and then on humans, with good controls, comparison with placebo, on large samples, and so on, and is ready to honestly tell about the results, whatever they may be, wonderful. Alas, in practice, as a rule, everything boils down to arguments in the style of "one aunt helped." Critical thinking, the ability to correctly exclude random coincidences with the help of statistical tests, the desire to admit our mistakes, check sources: this is what will help us avoid the spread of misconceptions, pseudoscience and superstitions. Incredible statements require incredible confirmations.
Table 1. Detailed information about the dangers of misconceptions, pseudoscience and superstitionThe author expresses gratitude to all the experts who took part in this analysis.
The author also expresses gratitude to Sima Chicheva for her help in data visualization.
Amendment:
a small mistake crept into the article. The harm of any vaccinations and "against vaccines" is, of course, the same thing. Recalculation after the elimination of this error almost does not change the rating: non-acceptance of vaccines remains in 23rd place. However, out of 38, not 39.
Portal "Eternal youth" http://vechnayamolodost.ru25.02.2014