The inevitable nano-future

Nano - propheciesSTRF.ru
There is no replacement for nanotechnology, Eric Drexler noted.

But what kind of future is foreseen thanks to them? Nikolay Yutanov, a well-known Russian science fiction writer, editor, publisher, and also a member of the foresight working group of the Russian scientific center "Kurchatov Institute", offers his script. We are publishing an article by Nikolay Yutanov, prepared for the journal "Russian Nanotechnologies" in a strongly abbreviated version.

The rapid development of information technologies in the late XX-early XXI century ensured the formation of classical investment-type markets and supported the existing post-war financial system for several decades. This made it possible to develop management capabilities and obtain the most important tool for crisis management. It is quite obvious that in order to prolong the operation of the classical financial and credit mechanism, the opening of new market niches was required. To solve this task, back in the 90s of the last century in the United States, the Clinton administration formed a technological initiative, which led to the formation of a global trend - the technological mainstream at the beginning of the XXI century. The technological mainstream is an interconnected development of three declared technological directions: informational, biotechnological and nanotechnological. These technological packages, of course, set new colossal market niches and initiate the formation of new political and cultural mechanisms in society.

The latter is extremely important and is the central link of anti-crisis transformations, because with the help of technologies put on the frontier, humanity acquires the ability to manage knowledge, health and invulnerability, and this will require completely different mass technologies of thinking, communication and the creation of a new value system, which is a prerequisite for creating a management system capable of translating the post-industrial crisis into a manageable format.

The task that has arisen before the world community is quite complex and insoluble in the usual strategic imperatives. The world practice of designing the development of complex systems for the coming decades involves the use of foresight technology.

Foresight technologyModern foresight developments are closely related to the technique of staging.

Formally, it was shown that foresight is best consistent with the staging model, in which the "inevitable future" is common to all and various versions of the future are considered, each of which contains this "inevitable future", but is not reduced to it. At the same time, an administrative choice of the development version from among the proposed ones is possible.

Let's focus on two important methods of staging.

Classical discrete staging packages historical trends into models of the world of the future. You can come up with several ways of such packaging that differ in development priorities, it is believed that each method describes its own development scenario or world line (for example: risky, advanced, optimal, inertial scenarios, — ed.). At the beginning, at the moment of staging, all the world lines coincide, but the closer to the forecast horizon, the lines are further apart, and the more different the scenarios are. Scenario forks are determined based on the analysis of contradictory trends, for example, expensive hydrocarbons-cheap hydrocarbons. In this method, "branching points" are distinguished (for example, presidential elections can be considered as such a point: one figure can open up a range of alternative opportunities, the other leads to an inertial development scenario, — ed.).

On the contrary, continuous staging is based on the concept of an "inevitable future", which is determined by three fundamental factors. These are non-alternative systemically significant trends (inertial future), non-alternative technological development (technological future) and non-alternative political decisions (regulatory future). Thus, the closer the moment of decision-making is to the prediction horizon, the less freedom of choice. The "inevitable future" is determined by the decisions made earlier and the inertia of large systems. For example, the occupancy rate of secondary schools in 2012 is determined by the number of children who were born in 2005, and today, in 2009, we cannot influence this in any way if there is no significant migration.

A future that is incompatible with the "inevitable" is obviously "impossible". Any future that includes the entire "inevitable future" and does not contain a single element of the "impossible future" is a version of the future, a scenario. It is clear that with this approach, the number of scenarios is not limited. Management comes down to choosing the scenario that suits you best, which is called the basic one. The remaining opportunities are considered as risks of the base scenario.

When analyzing the development of technologies by the method of continuous staging, it turns out that some technologies are closely related to each other. Such technologies form groups that develop as a whole. In the basic scenario, such groups should be included entirely. Only in this case they can influence social, economic, technological development.

Such groups in the technology space are called technology packages. Formally, a technology package is a genetically and functionally related set of technologies with systemic properties. The package as a whole implements one of the most significant needs, opportunities or mythologies for a given society. A technological package is always based on some scientific discipline or a system set of such disciplines — an information package, relies on certain infrastructures and requires regulatory and institutional design for its existence and development. The technological package includes the following functional elements:

• technologies, both physical and humanitarian,
• links between technologies (functional technological chains, genetic, structural),
• a basic scientific discipline or a set of such disciplines,
• basic infrastructure,
• basic institutional form,
• attached semantic space, i.e. representation in culture, including in cinema and literature.

If a technological package is based on a framed ontological picture, it is able to develop independently and generate its own versions of the future.

Technological mainstreamThree technology packages belong to the technological mainstream:

• information technology,
• biotechnologies,
• nanotechnology.

The connecting element of this system should be another technological package — environmental management technologies. It includes the classical ecological paradigm as a system of activity constraints and the evological principle that sets the norms of development. Rational nature management provides a territorial binding of all mainstream technologies and is considered as an industry for the creation and reformatting of ecosystems.

In the practice of global foresight, the mainstream is defined as a block of key technologies that can solve the problems of hunger, terrorism, environmental pollution, shortage of energy carriers, generating and distributing capacities. This concept was created as a response to the unconditional demand for sustainable progress of at least the developed part of the world society.

It should be noted that the technological mainstream is not a coherent system. It is the definition of the leading technological direction and its correlation with other technologies that will shape various versions of the future. At the same time, the main purpose of mainstream technologies remains the creation of a new investment springboard to resolve the current economic crisis. As a result, the mainstream becomes the basis for the implementation of global post-industrial projects.

Thus, the scenarios of the future at the moment are determined primarily by the choice of priorities for technological development. The development of modern information and environmental technologies is the "inevitable future" of all scenarios of global development. At the same time, the rapid development of biotechnologies or nanotechnologies generates special scenario branches: the alternative scenario "Biotechnological Revolution" and the breakthrough scenario "Quantum Reality". At the same time, it is assumed that the corresponding technological packages form their own ontologies and mythologies.

Historically, the space of fundamental research in the field of biotechnological developments is reserved for the United States and the countries of the European Union, while in Russia there is a strong lag associated with the blocking of biological research in the Soviet Union in the 30-50s of the XX century. On the other hand, the powerful development of the Russian atomic space project in the 40-50s left Russia (along with the USA) the primacy in the field of fundamental physical research. Therefore, for the Russian Federation, the basic scenario of technological development turns out to be the "Quantum Reality" scenario, despite its complexity and scale.

With the consistent implementation of the adopted political decisions on the Russian nanotechnology initiative and with a clear account of the peculiarities of regional development, Russia can occupy a significant niche in the world markets of new high-tech research and production in the coming decades.

Below is a more detailed forecast of the development of nanotechnology with a staging horizon until 2025.

Forecast of nanotechnology developmenttwothousandten

The first commercial samples of nanotechnology solutions for solar and hydrogen energy, medicine.

twothousandfifteenAn increase in the number of commercial nanoproducts, due to the high cost, available only in developed countries, in the elite segment of the consumer market.
Investment hype in the nanotechnology sector. Formation of the pseudo-nanoproducts market along with the nanoproducts market. Development of certification and standardization of nanomaterials. The fight against "nano-fraud". Development of the metrological component of nanotechnology.
Widespread adoption of nanotechnology-based solutions in various industries.
Creation of a nanoaccumulator of high energy intensity, resistant to mechanical damage. The first prototype of a car with a self-healing body coating. The use of nanofilms and other nanomaterials to improve the performance of automotive and aircraft engines. Similarly, a significant increase in the efficiency of turbines of power plants of thermal power plants due to the use of nanocoating. A significant increase in the efficiency of traditional energy due to the spread of nano-additives to fuel, nano-coatings, etc.
Development of structural composites based on high-strength fibers (fullerene tubes) in aircraft and automotive construction, military industry.
The use of adhesive properties of nanomaterials in the construction of pipelines.
Development of "crystallographic" components of nanotechnologies for various purposes: strength (abrasive materials, drilling and processing tools); optical (photonics components).
In medicine, "laboratories on a chip" and other diagnostic technologies, means of point drug delivery, antimicrobial coatings, biocompatible materials are used. There are developments in the field of dentistry.
The emergence of a significant nanotechnology tool base in Russia.

twothousandtwenty
Nanotechnology is becoming a key element of industrial competitiveness. The beginning of its active modernization based on nanotechnology.
The first commercial developments in the field of photonics for computers: optical and quantum solutions. Working solutions in the field of quantum cryptography.
Presentation of self-healing materials for military purposes, creation of bulletproof vests based on them, cases of mechanisms.
Nanotechnology is used for sewing workwear. New materials and structural solutions provide greater protection from aggressive environments, sterility, etc.
Mass distribution of nano-solutions for the modernization of production, cleaning, recycling. Creation of wearable systems for water filtration.
The appearance of a commercial sample of a small-capacity atomic nanoreactor with a high level of nuclear fuel processing, which gives an incentive to the development of deserted industries in sparsely populated areas. Transition to local generation of heat and electricity.
The renaissance of space programs due to the miniaturization of nodes and an increase in payload.
Further spread of nanomaterials in medicine. Implants and drugs based on nanotechnology can treat a number of previously incurable diseases. Breakthrough in the field of field medicine, neurology and transplantology. Medical nanobots and artificially created symbionts.
The difference between elite and mass food consumption is growing.
Demographic growth opportunities are opening up both by increasing the birth rate and by increasing the average life expectancy.

twothousandtwentyfiveAlmost all known formats and standards of life are being revised and reformatted on the basis of mechanochemistry, mechanotronics and photonics, and the independence of an individual family and even an individual is dramatically increasing.

Nanosymbionts of living organisms and humans appear.
Creation of quantum computers and a comprehensive data protection system based on quantum cryptography.
Quantum teleportation and the technologization of entangled states are expected to appear on the horizon of staging in the breakthrough scenario "Quantum Reality". On the basis of the development of femtotechnology (primarily photonics), femtoelectronics is being formed as a combination of quantum dots and anti-dots. nanoTVELs (high-tech fuel cells with minimization of spent nuclear fuel) are being developed and, as a result, the industry of nanoreactors is developing.

During the entire staging periodThe commercialization of technological innovations of any kind is accelerating.
There is a culture of rapid consumption of innovations, customization of products, emphasizing individuality. The world is experiencing waves of "nanomode", "biomode", "virtual fashion". New consumer products are increasingly required from the development of technology.
The development of a "black market" of research and development, especially in areas that are officially banned.
The need to neutralize the consequences of financial crises in any way leads to overinvestment in technological development. In the wake of these investments, we can expect, first of all, the implementation of huge military programs, ultra-expensive scientific projects, as well as a new wave of space and ocean exploration.

Portal "Eternal youth" http://vechnayamolodost.ru15.07.2009