The crisis will not hurt the pharmaceutical business
"Has the pharmaceutical business reached the bottom of the crisis, or will we still dig?" – The IV International Conference "Pharmaceutical Business in Russia" began yesterday with this ironic question from the Director of Marketing Research at the Center for Marketing Research (CMI) "Pharmexpert" David Melik-Huseynov.
Summing up the results of 2008 and giving forecasts for the current year, experts from leading Russian and international companies almost coincided in assessing the impact of the crisis on the pharmaceutical market. "It is not necessary to overestimate the crisis, the impact of which has already ended in general, but only its consequences exist," says Yuri Krestinsky, director of the Institute of Public Health Problems. – Already in this September – December, the market growth is possible."
Analysts of leading industry marketing agencies noted that, judging by the monitoring of 300 pharmacies in Moscow, the market will grow, it will only slow down slightly and will not amount to 30% in rubles, as in 2008, but perhaps 15-25%. But in physical terms, in packages, there may not be growth. In general, the growth rate of the market still roughly corresponds to the rate of inflation, and there are no collapses, as in the automotive industry or the tourist business. However, a new trend has emerged: Russians are switching to cheaper generic copies instead of expensive original drugs. Another trend is the reduction of the assortment in pharmacies.
"We should expect active government intervention in the market, a change in the rules of the game and business conditions," said Nikolay Demidov, General Director of CMI Pharmexpert. His colleague, DSM Group CEO Alexander Kuzin, suggests a reduction in non-profitable assets, a reduction in the number of pharmacy outlets by 3%. "However, if the backbone companies survive, the population will not suffer," he said. Mergers and alliances in the pharmaceutical market, according to the expert, will continue, including in pharmacy retail. Of course, the prevalence of imported medicines in the market remains a risk for them due to the dynamics of exchange rates, but in general, the forecasts sounded quite optimistic: the population will have to be treated in a crisis.
However, Mikhail Fedorenko, Deputy head of the Department of Control of the Social Sphere and Trade of the Federal Antimonopoly Service, tried to prevent market participants from rejoicing ahead of time. He said that his department intends to continue to identify barriers in the market, "gaming interactions of big pharma with the authorities." The FAS intends to compile registers of dominant entities (all producers of the federal program "7 nosologies" will automatically get into them according to the occupied share). In addition, she intends to find out the reasons why the world-famous drugs do not enter the Russian market, and the available ones are sold at a price two to three times higher than in the West.
For the normal existence of healthcare, and hence the pharmaceutical market of Russia, urgent amendments to a large volume of the regulatory framework in the field of healthcare are required, said Sergey Kolesnikov, Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Health Protection. In particular, only seven federal laws require amendments to optimize and simplify the supply of medicines to villagers and residents of remote territories. We are talking about allowing doctors in these territories to be participants in the pharmaceutical market.
As an anti-crisis measure, the deputy proposed to repeal Federal Law No. 94-FZ "On placing orders for the supply of goods, performance of works, provision of services for state and municipal needs", which defines public procurement of medicines through auctions. The deputy called this law "corruption-intensive nonsense", which should be replaced at least by a tender, since not only the price determines the need for a drug in public procurement.
Speaking about the prospects of drug provision, Deputy Head of Roszdravnadzor Elena Telnova confirmed that deliveries this year will be carried out according to a well-known scenario, but revealed some secrets of the 2020 concept currently being discussed in the depths of the Ministry of Health and Social Development and public procurement models for 2010 and beyond. According to her, most likely, one of the options will be chosen, in which the budget provision of medicines will extend not only to hospitals, but also to outpatient care. The possibilities of co-payments by the population are being considered, although their volume requires clarification. "Beneficiaries will continue to receive medicines at the expense of the budget, all changes will be introduced smoothly, and during 2010 the project will be tested in seven regions of all federal districts," Elena Telnova said.
Portal "Eternal youth" www.vechnayamolodost.ru17.02.2009