Calculating the risk of death
A simple table predicts dementia mortality
Svetlana Maslova, Hi-tech+
Some patients have been living with dementia for many years, while others develop the disease aggressively. Now scientists can predict a dangerous scenario within three years after diagnosis.
The prevalence of dementia, including Alzheimer's disease, is increasing every year. Some patients with neurodegeneration of the brain live for more than 10 years and the symptoms gradually worsen their quality of life, other people die quite quickly. Scientists from Sweden and the Netherlands have developed a tool to determine the likely mortality from dementia within three years after diagnosis. The findings are published on the website of the Karolinska Institute.
The study analyzed data from more than 50,000 people with dementia who were diagnosed between 2007 and 2015. By 2016, about 20 thousand volunteers had died, their average life expectancy after diagnosis was 4.8 years. Having studied the data of this cohort in detail, the team compiled diagnostic tables – a calculation tool for doctors of the first and second level.
The first-level doctors are neurologists who primarily advise the patient.
Using a new tool, they can give a person a prognosis based on their gender, age, cognitive abilities, as well as the presence of concomitant diseases.
Table for doctors of the first level of medical care. Dark green indicates a low, and dark purple indicates a high risk of death within three years, depending on age, gender, MMSE test results and the Charlson comorbidity index. A drawing from the press release of Simple tool shows life expectancy after dementia diagnosis – VM.
The second diagnostic table is intended for specialized clinics that additionally take into account the impact of the dementia subtype on the prognosis. For example, Alzheimer's disease is often less aggressive. By analyzing the data obtained, it is possible to determine the probability of patient mortality more accurately.
The ability to make a forecast of life expectancy is very important for the doctor, the patient and his relatives. Understanding the risks allows you to properly organize medical care and quickly identify people with increased risks of imminent death.
"Many patients ask doctors how their disease will develop. Now we can predict the most likely scenario," commented study co–author Sarah Garcia-Ptacek.
The article Haaksma et al. Survival time tool to guide care planning in people with dementia is published in the journal Neurology – VM.
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