A model has been created to estimate the risk of developing dementia over 14 years
The model estimates the likelihood of developing dementia based on 11 factors.Researchers from Oxford University have developed a test to predict the risk of people in middle age developing dementia within 14 years. The score is based on 11 prognostic factors, most of which are lifestyle-related.
The researchers used data from two cohorts of people aged 50 to 73 who participated in two large studies to create the model. They analyzed information on 220,762 people from the UK Biobank and 2,934 people from the Whitehall II study.
The scientists compiled a list of 28 risk and protective factors associated with dementia and used a statistical method called LASSO regression to identify and discard the least relevant factors. This resulted in 11 prognostic features for all types of dementia - the UKBDRS model.
The analysis showed that age, education, history of diabetes, history or current depression, past stroke, parental dementia, economic status, high blood pressure, high cholesterol, living alone and being male influenced the risk of dementia.
To this result, the researchers also added the APOE4 gene. It is involved in the production of a protein that helps carry cholesterol and other types of fats into the bloodstream and affects the risk of dementia. Based on a combination of factors, the model categorizes participants into low or high risk groups. Adding cognitive tests, brain scans and blood tests for biomarkers of neurodegeneration would improve the accuracy of the analysis, but these tests are expensive, time-consuming and not always available.
"The UKBDRS is best used as an initial screening tool to separate people into at-risk groups, and those identified as high-risk can obtain additional data from the more time-consuming follow-up assessments described above for more detailed characterization," Rayhan Patel, co-author of the study.
The researchers emphasize that the UKBDRS estimates risk and cannot predict that someone will necessarily develop dementia. But the model is fine for initial screening. In addition, since most factors can be changed or treated, the model suggests how to reduce the risk.