Aging will be short-lived

Comments on the scientific report on elderly Russians

Pavel Osipov, Solidarity

The population of Russia is aging, and we can only look for advantages in this. You can, for example, put pensioners to push the buttons in the beautiful factories of the future – instead of young workers. You can fill the judicial corps to the brim with them, so that they judge according to their wisdom, which is better than the law. Who does not have enough seats – send deputies to municipal assemblies – fortunately, this work is not paid in most cases. But pensioners will lead an active life and learn good things from each other. Such conclusions were made by the correspondent of "Solidarity", after listening to the participants of the round table "Myths about old age" at the Committee of Civil Initiatives on February 15. But I still did not find an answer to the question of how to guarantee a decent life for the elderly.

Vasyuki and roads

Good news: Russia, despite sanctions and a steadily declining economy, is still part of the club of developed countries. Because "the XXI century all over the world, and Russia is no exception here, is passing under the sign of a change in the age structure of the population." This is what the report "Aging as a socio-economic phenomenon" says. (It was presented to the participants of the round table "Myths about Old Age" in the Committee of Civil Initiatives by Oksana Sinyavskaya, Deputy Director of the HSE Institute of Social Policy.) That is, the birth rate is falling (hello to the mother capitals and state programs!), but the mortality rate is decreasing. And by 2050, the number of Russians over 65 will exceed a fifth of the population – as well as Japanese, Italians, Germans and even Americans. (But this, hopefully, is not the limit – we would still have to lower the birth rate a little, and leave everyone behind.)

But since there are more old people, it is logical to assume that they, as a more visible social group, should, as they say, "have the right." And not to "tremble" because of the fact that they cause unpleasant associations in younger fellow citizens "with extinction, reduced opportunities, losses, illnesses, loneliness, the approach of death." And then there are these damned sayings like "old age is not a joy", which are listed with scientific thoroughness in the report. "Hence the attitude towards the elderly, first of all, as those in need of support and care, dependent people, consumers of various goods, dependents, recipients of social support," the HSE experts conclude.

And this attitude needs to be changed. This is the main message of Oksana Sinyavskaya's report. More specifically, we need to look at aging as a window of new opportunities – "in the areas of consumption, lifestyle and quality of life, economic, social and political activity, education." Of course, the formation of a positive image of an old man is impossible without refusing to consider him a burden to society and a "threat to the stability of the pension system." Here, however, there is a catch (the nature of this very stability is even too lazy to kick once again). If a pensioner starts to consume more and better, travel and study, ten pension funds will not be enough for these miracles. And what is it, if not a threat to the current system?

And if so, let them earn for themselves on travel (from home to the FIU department and back, for example). And the famous Russian economist Yevgeny Gontmacher believes that in the near future the labor market will change so much that pensioners will have a lot of work. To their joy, of course. This is because fears of equalizing the number of workers and pensioners are based on a "mechanistic" view of work. And now another era is coming – "automated".

– There is and will be a massive replacement of low-prestige jobs for all sorts of robotization, digitalization... – predicts the economist. – And one Israeli historian says: the next generation of people who live in European-type countries will have nowhere to work.

Yevgeny Gontmacher reinforced the idea of his Israeli colleague with statements that drivers and security guards, for example, would soon be out of work. Because people everywhere will be replaced by security systems and self-driving cars. (And the capital will move to New Vasyuki. – P.O.)

– But employment will increase where it will be necessary to communicate with other people. Including with elderly people, – the expert is sure. – Elderly people are becoming participants in the labor market, and they will be the ones who will actually order services.

Although the first thing that comes to mind, if you look at the current Russian reality, is the thought of the brilliant future of the funeral services market. This is where our old people could become, in the words of Gontmacher, "the driver of economic growth." But the economist, of course, spoke about the development of the same tourism, education, leisure and sports of the elderly: "This is a huge demand!"

– It is clear that a pension system is needed here so that people create this solvent demand, – the economist seemed to besiege himself. But no: – In principle, this is also not an unresolved issue. (That's right – "unresolved", that is, the issue has already been resolved, and our pensioners can afford to take a walk in Tahiti. - P.O.)

Immediately, as a panacea option, an independent basic income, or BBD, a fashionable topic now, was mentioned. Distribution of a certain amount of money to citizens monthly. Yes, who would refuse from pensioners! But the question arises: if the state cannot raise the meager unemployment benefit for a million (according to official figures) people for a year, where will it find money for forty million pensioners?

However, Evgeny Gontmacher himself mentioned the idea of BBD only in passing. He dwelt a little more on the idea of transferring "healthy, educated, active people of the third age" to the management of city municipalities. ("You will see: municipalities will become completely different ...") The idea is excellent, but unfinished. And what if we introduce an age limit for local deputies at 60 years old? Moreover, thanks to the inexorable progress, there will soon be no younger people.

Although observations suggest that there are still enough elderly municipal (and not only) deputies. And what "we will see", what will be the great difference? It remains to assume that the current elderly deputies are stupid, inactive and incapable of governing. But the main thing is that in the absolute majority of cases municipal deputies work on a voluntary basis, for free. So where the mundeps newly minted by Evgeny Gontmacher will take money to move the economy forward with their spending remains a mystery. But their work will indeed be connected with communication, as mentioned above. It's better than sitting on a bench at the entrance.

Voluntarily. That is , for free

– There is a global, fundamental change in the structure of employment, – said Yuri Voronin, professor at Moscow State Law University. – Physical labor is being displaced with the help of artificial intelligence (which has not yet been created. – P.O.), with the help of robots, automata. But in many ways the young worker was in demand on the market precisely because of the predominance of physical properties. And when our employee is replaced by a robot, then this is a completely different picture of employment and demand for older people.

In general, in short, automation will lead to an increase in demand for the management of these very machines – and an elderly employee can cope with this. "Their experience is even more preferable," the professor is sure again for some reason, adding at the same time words about the need for life experience. But you can't talk to a robot for life, right? It's not like telling a team of young interns about a mother-in-law.

But not by a single robotization: Voronin went further than Gontmacher's colleague and proposed to "age" the judicial corps even more:

– He must be even older! Because only a person with a rich life experience who has seen everything can often make a judgment about everyday situations.

It is foolish to risk arguing with a professor of the law academy in his own field. But still, to make a court decision, guided by what I have seen, and not by laws, is a rather strange approach. Let's say an official stole budget money, and the judge remembers: I've been to the Grand Bazaar in Rostov-on-Don, they say, so they steal there all the time. You can't transplant everyone anyway, my life experience tells me that. Go, dear man, and don't get caught again...

On the other hand, yes: such elderly judges will be able to spend a lot for the benefit of the economy, and not only the Russian one. It remains to adopt a law according to which every factory cleaner will be given a black robe at the age of 55.

However, Yuri Voronin did not say this, but he said the right words about the fact that people are afraid not so much of old age itself – age and age, what's wrong with that – but of losing their jobs, and that pensions will not be enough for food and medicine. And it is necessary to "protect people reliably" from these risks.

– Better (That's what he said. - P.O.) there is probably no mechanism better than the social insurance system. Because there are only two alternatives: self-sufficiency and state support. Both self–sufficiency and the budget will never allow to finance both pension and social care at the necessary level," the professor spoke that day only in a confident tone. – Society needs an affordable nurse, and only the social insurance system can provide this accessibility.

But, it seems, only on the condition that social funds will receive some additional source of income: wage funds are falling everywhere, Voronin says, and there are not enough deductions from salaries. At the end of his speech, the professor stated, as an inveterate professional leader, that without solving the problem of low salaries, the problem of low pensions will not be solved.

– Because there can't be rich pensioners with poor workers, – he concluded.

But the experts gathered to discuss not the prosperity of pensioners at all (and this is not a reproach to them, the topic of the meeting honestly reflected its content). Therefore, probably, the right words about how elderly Russians should live sounded, and there were no words, with rare exceptions, about how they live in reality. ("I'm talking about how it should be, not how it is," Yevgeny Gontmacher stressed during the conversation.) But this is what makes us throw up our hands with the naivety stated above. Such a reaction would be appropriate to the story about the foreign experience shared by Oksana Sinyavskaya.

A lot was said at the round table that a pensioner should live an active and exciting life. And in this regard, elderly people simply need to be involved in volunteer activities. Most often, we note, it is not paid, well, well, but you will look at people and show yourself. So, in New Zealand, for example, Sinyavskaya says, they calculated "the contribution of elderly people engaged in volunteering" to the economy – it amounted to 6 billion local dollars. And what is worse than ours (not dollars, but pensioners)? Send volunteers to potatoes to engage in robotics, tea is familiar! Maybe we'll save money, let them contribute...

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