An aging economy
Technologies of the elderly society
Peter Birger, <url>
One of the serious demographic problems faced by developed societies is the aging of the population. An increase in life expectancy and a decrease in the birth rate caused by advances in medicine and gerontology, feminism, secularization of society, changes in family values, economic and social factors leads to the fact that an increasing percentage of the population are elderly people, pensioners. In the Russian Federation, the proportion of people over the age of 65 is now 14%. According to demographers, by 2030 this figure may increase to 25%. Similar trends are observed both in Europe and in the USA.
The aging of society is a serious economic problem. According to UN forecasts, by 2050 22% of the world's population will be retired. And in developed countries, there will be a pensioner for every working citizen. This means that production will decrease, the tax burden will increase – due to pensions and healthcare – and the number of workers will fall. Experts of the International Monetary Fund are confident that the aging of mankind will produce a much more serious blow to the economy than the global economic crisis. Now the average life expectancy in developed countries is three years longer than previously predicted. Such a change will require an additional 1% to 2% of the countries' GDP. If we assume that this trend will continue until 2050, then in order to cover the additional costs for these three years of average life expectancy, states will have to postpone up to 50% of GDP (if presented as a lump sum). And this is despite the fact that the IMF calculations affect only pensions, but not healthcare, which also falls on the shoulders of the state.
Now the oldest population in the world is in Japan. As of February 2012, 23% of the inhabitants of the land of the rising sun are over 65 years old, and more than 11% are over 75. Probably, by 2015, more than a quarter of the country's population will be of retirement age. In addition, Japan is also the fastest aging country in the world: back in 1989, the proportion of elderly people did not exceed 12%. Therefore, it is not surprising that in Japan the issue of population aging is very acute, and ways to solve it are being developed at the state level.
One of the ways to combat the shortage of labor is to involve previously unused labor resources. Special allowances for parents of young children, such as maternity leave for fathers, a reduced working day, up to five days off due to the child's illness and overtime restrictions, allow both young spouses with children to be involved in work. These measures make it possible to slightly improve the situation with a shortage of labor, but the number of pensioners does not decrease from this.
However, "retired" does not necessarily mean "inoperable". Modern advances in medicine allow many people, even at an advanced age, to maintain mental clarity, health and adequate motor skills. Of course, the situation is far from ideal now, but a huge number of innovative solutions to combat aging and major diseases of the elderly allow us to hope that the age of "active old age", that is, the state when an elderly person can lead a more or less full life, will steadily increase.
Various methods of combating age-related diseases have significantly increased the number of active pensioners. Rationalization of production, improvement of safety and improvement of working conditions play a significant role in increasing the working capacity of older people. Many modern productions require only small physical costs and do not depend on the endurance of the worker. Moreover, it is possible that Japan owes its success in the robotization of production to the problem of the aging of the nation. Robotic production has saved workers from having to perform heavy and dangerous work with loads, presses, welding machines, at high and low temperatures, vibrations and noises. This allows aging people with a deteriorating physical condition to work. Labor-saving machines increase labor productivity and enable the economy to cope with a shrinking workforce.
Traditionally, the involvement of migrants has helped to solve the problem of a shortage of workers, especially in non-prestigious areas such as cleaning or nursing. However, historically, Japan has very strict requirements for immigrants. Only 1.5% of Japanese residents are representatives of other nationalities. According to a BBC study, 98% of foreigners applying to work as nurses and nurses in Japan do not pass the language proficiency exam required to obtain a permit. One of the possible ways to avoid attracting foreign labor, the Japanese see in the development of home robots. Unlike the United States, which actively uses various robots in combat and the fight against terrorism, Japanese engineers are actively developing robots that can make life easier for elderly lonely people.
Toyota Corporation experts believe that in the future the state will be able to save up to $ 21 billion a year through the use of home robots. Unfortunately, despite Japan's position as a leading developer and manufacturer of robotics, real anthropomorphic robots capable of helping around the house have not yet been invented, but it's a matter of time – the latest prototypes of Honda and Toyota can walk on two legs and even run. However, the Japanese have succeeded in creating companion robots, and this is a real experience that other countries should adopt. Companion robots are usually stationary or move on wheels, are constantly connected to the Internet, have a speech generator and a speech recognition system. They serve to ensure that older people do not feel lonely, can support a primitive conversation and perform the simplest computer queries. Their most important function is to regularly check the interaction with the owner to make sure that he is alive and well. If the robot does not receive a response from the owner, or hears cries for help, it automatically calls for emergency medical care.
Another task is to train older people to use the latest technologies. The ubiquity and cheapness of the Internet and personal computers allow the elderly to always stay in touch with their loved ones, order the necessary goods and services at home, read, watch television and communicate. Equally important, a computer with an Internet connection can become a new workplace for many older people. When working from home, an elderly person can observe the diet and rest prescribed by doctors, work in a comfortable environment and not be stressed in public transport. Many types of employment allow you to work remotely and do not require special health or age requirements – translations, work with databases, in support services, etc. Of course, this requires special training and training of older people if they are not used to working with a computer. Such courses are being successfully implemented all over the world, including in Russia. In addition, the further away, the less there will be a need for older people to adapt to modern technology, because the current working generation for the most part freely uses computers and the Internet, and they will not have excessive difficulties with adaptation at retirement.
Given how many people in post-industrial countries are already working from home or at a computer in the office, the aging of society may have a lesser impact on areas where remote work is possible. But in this case, the issue of age preferences is acute. For example, in Japan, where wages traditionally increase with the age of an employee, it is more profitable to hire young people, and in some firms up to the 90s of the XX century, early dismissal is prescribed in the terms of the contract upon reaching 55 years (at the retirement age of 60 years). In order to provide older people with work, strict compliance with the labor Code and the absence of age preferences are necessary.
The aging of the population inevitably awaits all developed countries, and a little later – and developing ones. This problem requires a comprehensive approach – social, economic and technological. Moreover, it is necessary to act now, since the latest forecasts of the UN, the IMF and other organizations tend to be fulfilled ahead of schedule. This means that at any moment Europe may find itself in a crisis caused not by foreign exchange markets or internal debts of states, but by the fact that it is unable to cope with social obligations to its elderly citizens and the lack of its own workforce.
Portal "Eternal youth" http://vechnayamolodost.ru11.07.2012