Is Japan the world leader in demographic change?
Is the birth rate a determining factor in the fate of the nation? The statement according to which the population of Japan decreased by almost a quarter of a million in 2013 – such dynamics has been registered for the fifth year in a row – caused alarm that the country may be on the path of irreversible extinction.
According to demographers, the population of Japan is the oldest in the world. The average age of Japanese residents is 46 years, and the average life expectancy is 84 years, while a quarter of the population has already passed the 65-year mark. However, some experts believe that the future of the country is not so sad. Perhaps what will happen in Japan in the coming years may outline the future of other countries of the world.
According to Nicholas Eberstadt, a demographer from the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, the longevity of the Japanese cannot compensate for the extremely low birth rate of only 1.4 children per woman. Japanese workaholics voluntarily chose the path of "mass childlessness". To date, every fourth of them has no children. Many European countries are also characterized by very low birth rates, but they are compensated by immigration, which does not happen to isolated Japan.
According to traditional beliefs, a decrease in the population is a bad forecast for the country: this hinders economic growth, and the increase in the number of pensioners is a huge financial burden. However, Eberstadt claims that there is another side to the coin. The ratio between the number of pensioners and able-bodied people in Japan is not critical, while there are almost twice as many people over the age of 65 than children. Consequently, the country spends less money on education. Moreover, the Japanese are the healthiest nation in the world, respectively, the costs of their medical care are significantly lower than in other countries.
Over the past two decades, the Japanese economy has been developing very slowly. However, according to William Cline of the Washington Institute of International Economics. Peterson, this fact is also misleading. Due to the decrease in the population, there is a pronounced increase in personal income in the country, exceeding the income growth of most US residents.
Japan, which has 127 million inhabitants, can hardly be called a sparsely populated country. However, a decrease in the population in the future means an increase in living space, acreage per capita, as well as the quality of life. The country's needs for food and other natural resources will also decrease.
Japan is not alone in its demographic situation. Russia, Romania and Hungary are moving in the same direction. Many other countries have received a reprieve due to immigration. However, the global economic bomb is slowly being discharged. As the Swedish statistician Hans Rosling noted for the first time, a "peak child" has recently appeared in the world, after the birth of which the number of children aged 0 to 14 years began to decline. Over the past 40 years, the global fertility rate has halved and currently falls short of 2.5 children per woman, which means that the critical point is approaching, after which the world population will begin to decrease.
Therefore, we can say that Japan is a "world leader in demographic change." For some, it sounds like a disaster. Last year, the Chinese government relaxed its "one-child policy" because it feared that the projected population decline in the 2030s would put an end to the country's economic growth. At the same time, many experts believe that reducing the global population is the first necessary step that will allow us to reduce the burden on the planet. From this point of view, the example of Japan is the only correct option.
Evgeniya Ryabtseva
Portal "Eternal youth" http://vechnayamolodost.ru based on the materials of New Scientist:
Japan's ageing population could actually be good news.
Portal "Eternal youth" http://vechnayamolodost.ru09.01.2014