Fearfully…

Professor Severinov: "In Russia, people with covid have a 15-fold higher risk of dying than in Israel"

Alyona Bezmenova, "Doctor Peter"

Konstantin Severinov is a molecular biologist, professor at the Skolkovo Institute of Science and Technology, Professor at Rutgers University, head of laboratories at the Institute of Molecular Genetics of the Russian Academy of Sciences and the Institute of Gene Biology of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

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Four days in a row – at least 950 dead. In Russia, anti-records are set daily for the number of victims of a new coronavirus infection. At the same time, many experts admit that the fourth rise of COVID-19 is still only at the beginning of the journey, how long it will last and when we will reach the "plateau", it is impossible to understand yet. At the same time, we are also one step away from the sad record for the number of cases per day: the last one was set at the peak of the second rise – on December 24, 2020. According to official statistics, there were 29,935 cases that day. And 635 people were recognized as dead from covid – one and a half times less than they are dying now.

Statistics

Professor-microbiologist Konstantin Severinov is sure that there can be only two reasons for such a record lethality.

– Throughout the summer and throughout September, the mortality rate (the percentage of deaths from the number of infected daily) is approaching 4 percent, this is several times higher than the mortality rate that is characteristic of coronavirus infection in the case of unvaccinated population, – Konstantin Severinov calculated. – Two explanations that are not mutually exclusive:

• statistics on infected people are underestimated, for some reason not all data is given to the Center;

• the number of tests that we are doing is not enough. This is more likely, and does not imply any malicious intent.

It is unlikely that we have a special form of the virus in Russia that kills Russians more effectively than other people. Russians are hardly the most susceptible to the deadly effects of coronavirus. Our doctors treat no worse than doctors in other countries, because, in fact, there is no treatment as such.

And if this is the case, then the situation is even worse than one could imagine. In order to normalize our 900 dying people daily in terms of mortality with the rest of the world, we need to assume that we have up to 100 thousand people infected, that is, we are four times short of infected. It seems that no one in the country knows the exact numbers.

Our attitude to security measures could lead to such figures, where 30 thousand is only the tip of the iceberg.

– Unfortunately, everyone spits on various measures of social distancing, which are actually very effective, in our country, in general," Severinov stated.

The population of Russia is now 146 million people. According to official statistics, a little more than 7.8 million people have been ill in our country, that is, only 5 percent have suffered the virus.

If we assume that there is a plague all over the world, then in Russia we have a feast during the plague.

Vaccination

– Another 30 percent have been vaccinated, and not all of them are with the current vaccine. This means that most Russians can and will be infected," RTVI suggested on the air of the program "What was it?" Konstantin Severinov. – From the point of view of platforms, we have three vaccines – these are Sputnik, KoviVak and EpiVacCorona.

• Sputnik has published data on three stages of clinical trials, and it is the third stage of clinical trials that shows the effectiveness of the vaccine, that is, its ability to prevent infection, and, in fact, this is what we want from the vaccine.
  "EpiVacCorona" – a publication was made in a journal subordinate to the institute, within the walls of which this vaccine was developed. Published "something" that I analyze during a seminar on scientific methodology as an example of how not to do research. There is no data on efficiency, which did not prevent its use in civil circulation. Publication in the "Structure and fence" ... something in this spirit ("Infections and immunity" – editor's note), we analyzed this article – you don't need to be a genius, you don't need to be a professor, a doctor of biological sciences to understand that you are being pushed bullshit. The introduction of an unproven vaccine in civil circulation is very uncosher. 
  "EpiVacCorona-N" – I think these are the same eggs, only on the side. There's nothing really to talk about here.

• "KoviVak" – so far published data on the effectiveness of this vaccine is a "preclinic", these are laboratory animals in which it has been shown that antibodies do occur. Kovivak has a big name behind it, the name of the M.P. Chumakov Polio Institute. But in fact, we do everything by trust. After all, it is not necessary to assume that the Muscovites who lined up for the "Kovivak" made a reasonable decision, we make most decisions unreasonably. We may consider ourselves educated users, but most of us do not understand what we are buying or what is being injected into us. There is a very good initiative group of young scientists who made this vaccine. But if we talk about scientific articles, there is no evidence of it on living people.

Russian scientists are currently developing a large number of vaccines. However, this does not mean that many of them will be able to reach civil circulation. Since research, evidence, and publications in peer-reviewed journals are required. Betuvax-CoV-2 may appear on the market in the near future

– It is produced by a good company, good scientists, probably they can do something. In my opinion, this vaccine will be in the spirit of Novavax, there is such a vaccine that was made in America. It is protein, and in this sense, probably, for people who are worried that foreign genetic material, whatever it means, gets into their sacred bodies - they should become more calm. But I think it's too early to talk about it. It's pointless to talk about anything without clinical trials," Professor Severinov believes.

On the recognition of Russian vaccines

WHO experts said on October 12 that if the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) signs legal documents in the coming days, then Sputnik V will probably have time to recognize it before the new year. And how are things with other drugs?

– I think that we cannot talk about all Russian vaccines in principle, there is an evidence base for only one. The presence of an "EpiVacCorona" plays a cruel joke and a role in the partners' desire to recognize Russian vaccines, Konstantin Severinov suggested. – The recognition of a foreign vaccine is a huge responsibility. You should be completely sure that all the documentation for the production of these vaccines is made in such a way that no mosquito will erode your nose. We are talking about a drug that is produced in millions of doses, and you want to be sure that what you received last week, what you will receive today, and what you will receive in a month will always meet a certain quality standard. These standards have been developed by the global pharmaceutical industry, there are some doubts that Sputnik's contract production facilities, which are scattered throughout the country, comply with all these standards.

Collective immunity

– The percentage of vaccination in Russia is 30 percent of the population, that is, two times less than in Europe and the USA, – Konstantin Severinov cites statistics. – There can be no talk of collective immunity now, because delta has the property that infects vaccinated people, just the consequences are different. Therefore, the concept of collective immunity has lost a little meaning. 

Vaccination has no face, there is no person – "vaccine king", "vaccine leader".

Look at what is in the USA. There is Dr. Fauch there, he brings ideas about the need for vaccination. And this is not politics. He's not trying to say that anti-vaxxers are all freaks, he's trying to explain what's what. The highest vaccination rate is in Portugal. A former submarine captain speaks to people. He approached this process as a military campaign. There is no such person in Russia.

Revaccination

– There is no data to date. Judging the effectiveness of vaccines by the number of antibodies, it may go down to an undetectable level, but this does not mean that you are not protected. Perhaps your memory cells will have time to multiply in order to suppress the infectious agent, – Konstantin Severinov suggests. – But no one checked that it was not necessary at the fifth month, and at the seventh – it was already too late. It's just common sense. Perhaps it will not be possible to increase the number of vaccinated in our country, there will be people who will not be vaccinated even for the first time, so revaccination will not be a problem for them – they simply will not reach it. We talk about vaccination all the time, as if it's a civil feat. People post their certificates on Facebook, after that we have to clap and like them.

Revaccination does not require heroism at all, it is less psychologically scary than diving into an ice hole for Baptism.

About the situation in Israel

"There is some upsurge there, but it's a shame to call it an outbreak on our scale. Their mortality rate is 10-15 times lower than in our country. If you are a Russian, after you become positive, your chances of dying are 15 times higher than in Israel."

About the Delta strain

"You and I once displaced the Neanderthals. Not necessarily because we turned out to be the best, but we are more adapted to environmental conditions. Delta turned out to be better adapted, infects faster, produces more offspring, therefore displaces all existing forms."

About antibiotics

"Uncontrolled use of antibiotics ultimately leads to an increase in the frequency of microbes that are resistant to these antibiotics. It's a bit like the evolution of the coronavirus, which is slowly changing somewhere, it's the same here. And therefore, when antibiotics are really needed, if a person has a serious bacterial infection, then doctors, it turns out, simply cannot cure this person, because antibiotics do not act on those bacteria that have started in the lungs of this particular person, and then it is impossible to get him out.

Unlike bacteria, the virus is not alive. It gets into our cell and reprograms it to make a new virus."

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