Six risk factors – tens of millions of lives
At the UN General Assembly in 2011, it was decided to reduce premature mortality (aged 30 to 70 years) by 2025 from the four most important non-communicable chronic human diseases by 25% compared to 2010. Subsequently, WHO formulated goals to reduce the impact of certain risk factors for the development of these diseases.
According to the results of a study conducted by scientists at King's College London under the leadership of Professor Majid Ezzati, reducing the impact of six managed risk factors to set goals within 15 years can prevent more than 37 million deaths.
The main non-communicable diseases include diseases of the cardiovascular system, chronic respiratory diseases, cancer and diabetes mellitus, and the considered risk factors are smoking, excessive alcohol consumption, consumption of large amounts of salt, high blood pressure, elevated blood glucose levels and obesity.
According to the agreement adopted at the world level, the following goals are set for the listed risk factors:
- smoking – reduction by 30-50%;
- alcohol consumption – decrease by 10%;
- salt intake – 30% reduction%;
- high blood pressure – decrease by 25%;
- stopping the increase in the incidence of obesity and diabetes mellitus.
During the study, the authors used data on mortality and risk factors collected nationwide, as well as epidemiological models, which allowed them to estimate the number of deaths that could potentially be prevented in the period from 2010 to 2025.
The analysis showed that achieving the goals for all 6 risk factors by 2025 will reduce the risk of mortality from four major diseases by 22% for men and 19% for women.
The authors note that on a global scale, this corresponds to the prevention of 16 million deaths of people aged 39-70 years and 21 million deaths of people over the age of 70 years.
The greatest positive effect is expected from reducing the number of smokers and regulating blood pressure. According to researchers, reducing the prevalence of smoking by 50% by 2025 will reduce the risk of premature death by 24% for men and 20% for women.
At the same time, Professor Ezzati notes that the most pronounced effect will be observed in low- and middle-income countries, since high-income countries are already on the way to achieving the stated goals. In these countries, measures such as the introduction of taxes on tobacco and alcohol products, a ban on smoking in public places and recommendations to reduce the salt content in food are being actively taken.
Article by Majid Ezzati et al. Contribution of six risk factors to achieving the 25×25 non-communicable disease mortality reduction target: a modeling study published in The Lancet.
Evgeniya Ryabtseva
Portal "Eternal youth" http://vechnayamolodost.ru according to Medical News Today:
37 million deaths could be prevented by reducing 6 risk factors.
08.005.2014