In 10 years, Russia will enter the top five largest economies in the world

Salaries of Russians will jump to $2,700! Already in 2020 Anastasia Romasheva, Really.
<url>, 15.04.2010

Russia will soon enter the top five largest economies in the world, surpassing Germany, France and Britain in terms of GDP. This was stated by the head of the presidential administration of the Russian Federation Sergey Naryshkin, who delivered a lecture in Kyoto. As bonuses, the population will receive an average salary of $ 2,700 per month and a life expectancy of 75 years. And all this after some ten years.

"Based on the analysis, the Government of the Russian Federation includes the following indicators as targets for Russia's development. Among them is the diversification of the economy, in which the share of high–tech industries will be about 20%, labor productivity growth by 2020 by 2.5 times, and in some sectors – by 5 times, energy efficiency growth by 2 times, the average monthly wage growth to 2.7 thousand dollars per person," Naryshkin said..

"This is an improvement in medical care with an increase in the average life expectancy to 75 years," the head of the presidential administration added. "The middle class should make up more than 50 percent of the population."

According to Rosstat, according to the results of February 2010, the nominal accrued salary of one employee amounted to an average of 19 thousand 128 rubles in the Russian Federation (less than $658 at the exchange rate of the Central Bank today). Thus, according to the plan of the authorities, in 10 years the average salary of Russians should increase by 4.1 times. Over the past year, it grew by only 8.5% (amounted to 18 thousand 785 rubles by the end of December) after an increase of 15% a year earlier. The real incomes of the population increased by 2.3% in 2009, the Interfax news agency reminds.

Long–term forecasts of the development of the Russian economy are quite favorable, but Russia needs to overcome a number of global systemic challenges, believes Sergey Naryshkin, who also recalled that optimistic forecasts of the development of the Russian economy for the long term – until 2025 or 2050 - are given, including by independent experts.

In particular, PricewaterhouseCoopers predicts the growth of the Russian economy by an average of 4.3% per year, "as a result, by the middle of the century, the Russian Federation will surpass Germany, France and the UK in terms of GDP," RIA Novosti writes. Bank of America experts also predicted a bright future for the domestic economy. According to their forecasts, in 2010 it will make the most powerful breakthrough in the world. The estimated GDP growth by the end of the year will be 7%, but all this is due to oil prices…

According to Naryshkin, in order to achieve the targets, Russia will have to implement large-scale institutional and structural reforms. This includes the transition to an innovative development strategy, institutional modernization, stimulating the development of human capital, the development of judicial, law enforcement and administrative systems, the Interfax agency adds.

In the long-term forecast of the economic development of the Russian Federation until 2050, "Comprehensive system analysis and modeling of global dynamics", the country identified three development scenarios. According to the optimistic scenario, labor productivity in Russia by 2050 will reach 85% of the productivity in the OECD countries, and the standard of living will rise to 60% of the level of the OECD countries.

The scenario "Russia is a resource power" draws possible macroeconomic prospects of the Russian Federation in the absence of structural shifts in the economy and active development of extractive sectors. Taking into account the fact that only a small proportion of the population of the Russian Federation is employed in the resource extraction sector and in the maintenance of the corresponding infrastructure, the country will not reach the current level of well-being of the OECD countries in 40 years. Moreover, by 2050, the incomes of citizens will begin to fall as a result of the mass retirement of the generation of the 80s.

In the absence of the necessary investments in production and maintaining the orientation to oil, Russia "shines" the most negative scenario – becoming a global periphery. After the depletion of the reserves of "black gold", the country will begin to become impoverished. "At the same time, all sectors of the economy are impoverished, with the exception of mining, finance and trade. Due to weak integration into the international financial system and the market, the economy with the current structure will return the country to the relative standard of living of the 1990s," the article says.

Portal "Eternal youth" http://vechnayamolodost.ru 15.04.2010