Is Russian society ready for modernization?
Closed circlesAs it turned out, the people understand the strategic program of modernization of Russia in their own way
Sergey Bulatov, Literaturnaya Gazeta No. 27-2010
In general, with modernization, if you do not delve into the details, the question is simple and impartial: are we behind forever or is there a chance to jump on the outgoing express? This is the global strategic goal for the country. But then Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin announced at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum that by 2015 Russia's total debt would increase by one and a half times and reach 14 percent of gross domestic product, and the deficit of the Pension Fund in 2011 would amount to 1 trillion rubles, and therefore an increase in the retirement age in Russia is inevitable.
Although nothing catastrophic seems to be happening – there is oil and gas and their prices are not falling. And at least for the next 20 years, our hydrocarbons will be in demand in the world, there is no replacement for them yet. So why are the prospects so bleak?
The Institute of Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, together with the Friedrich Ebert Foundation, completed a fundamental study and presented the report "Is Russian society ready for modernization".
And it turned out that under the word "modernization" the head of state and the population understand completely different aspects of life and activity.
For most Russians, "modernization" is not innovation and nanotechnology, but... socio–political, domestic reforms. The Russians called the main guarantee of successful modernization:
– equality before the law, respect for human rights – 41 percent;
– ruthless and ultimately successful fight against corruption – 38 percent;
– establishment of social justice – 31 percent.
And only 25 percent named the formation of an effective innovative economy as a priority.
So, the people believe that modernization should begin with public-state relations. But there is a temporary danger here. While we are fighting corruption and lawlessness, the world is rapidly developing, moving forward. The patterns of the stages of economic development (cycles or waves) were revealed by the Russian and Soviet economist Nikolai Kondratiev, today it has been transformed into the theory of technological patterns. According to it, the Soviet Union successfully fit in and even in some ways became the leader of the 4th technological order, when mechanical engineering, heavy industry, and energy played a leading role in the world economy. But the 5th way - chemistry, computerization, information technology – we missed. And there's no point in catching up now.
"If we build a factory for the production of mobile phones now, it will burn out because it is not needed," says Georgy Malinetsky, vice president of the Nanotechnology Society. – There are 180 million mobile phones in Russia, and all of them are manufactured abroad. 30 percent of the world's natural resources are located on our territory, and our contribution to the global product is only 3 percent. Such countries do not live long. All Russian oil yields about $60 billion, arms sales - $6 billion. Meanwhile, India is currently producing $40 billion worth of software and plans to reach $60 billion in the near future. That is, they earn as much with their brains as we do with the sale of oil. The word "innovation" is applied to us only in the meaning of "innovative rout", since by this indicator we are 15 times lower than the Soviet Union's long-standing level..."
Meanwhile, the 6th technological order is already on the threshold of the world.
"It will be based on biotechnology, nanotechnology, robotics, virtual reality technologies," says the same Malinetsky. – Now it is being determined which countries will be the leaders… Russia has very little time. Our task is to jump into the last car of the departing train. Otherwise, there is a high probability that we will not be there."
"Such countries do not live for a long time..." "We will not be..." Somehow very fatally, categorically. Unless Malinetsky proceeds from the fact that it is better to frighten than not to frighten. To excite public opinion as much as possible, to mobilize the state and the government. So that they act in the manner of those Asian "tigers" – with the utmost determination and concentration of forces. When South Korea, for example, invested up to 40 percent of GDP in the development of new technologies.
And if we did not have time to rush forward in due time, like Singapore and Korea, then we can quite keep up with India. Of course, I would like to enter the global economy as an independent force, in the rank of legislators, not followers. But there is no choice. It is not shameful or shameful to study. It is shameful and shameful not to study. Don't change. Everything is in our hands. Who can stop us?
The question is not idle. The experts of the Institute of Sociology included it in their study and asked Russians to answer it as well.
55 percent of Russians named state civil officials as the main brake on progress in Russia, and 33 percent – law enforcement agencies.
That is, 88 percent of Russians believe that the number one enemy of modernization is the state apparatus.
This is the first vicious circle. There is a second one – the inertia of the Russians themselves. According to research, our citizens are in the eternal belief that nothing depends on them, they cannot influence the state, especially since they cannot defend their group interests – and they rely only on decisive actions on the part of the state.
In order to break these vicious circles, the state must fight bureaucracy, with its own apparatus. So far in Russian history, such wars have ended with the secret or obvious defeat of the reformers – in the end, all the reforms were won by officials…
Will there be something this time?
Portal "Eternal youth" http://vechnayamolodost.ru20.07.2010