Old grumblers live longer than optimists

German researchers from the University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, working under the guidance of Dr. Gert G. Wagner, analyzed data collected from 1993 to 2003 for the National German Socio-Economic Commission, an annual study involving approximately 40,000 people aged 18 to 96 years. As part of this study, in a private conversation, participants are asked to assess their level of life satisfaction on a scale from 0 to 10 at the current time and give a forecast for the next five years.

Before the analysis, the authors divided the participants into age groups: 18-39 years, 40-64 years and 65 years and older. After that, they assessed the accuracy of predicting life satisfaction by calculating the difference between the level of expected life satisfaction declared in 1993 and the real level of this indicator, named in 1998. The data collected in subsequent years were also analyzed.

Five years after the first interview, it turned out that 43% of the representatives of the oldest group underestimated, 25% gave an accurate forecast and 32% overestimated their satisfaction with life in the future. Based on the average indicator of changes in the level of life satisfaction over time for this group, it was found that each score of reassessment of life satisfaction in the future corresponded to an increase in the incidence of health problems by 9.5% and the risk of death by 10%.

According to the results of the study, elderly people were significantly more likely than young people to give accurate forecasts of life satisfaction in the future. Apparently, this is due to the fact that a pessimistic view of the future is often more realistic than the excessive optimism characteristic of young people. Middle-aged people turned out to be the most accurate predictors of the future, but their expectations became more pessimistic over time.

Unexpectedly for themselves, the authors found that stable health and financial well-being were associated with the expectation of a more significant deterioration in the future compared with more optimistic expectations resulting in poor health and low incomes. Moreover, it turned out that a higher income level is associated with a greater risk of developing disability for medical reasons. The authors also note that other factors, such as illness, treatment or the loss of loved ones, can affect the state of health.

The results obtained do not contradict the theories according to which unrealistic optimism about the future in some cases helps people feel better when faced with the inevitable, for example, with an incurable disease. However, the authors argue that what both optimistic and accurate or pessimistic forecasts lead to depends on age and available resources. The results provide us with new information about how our expectations can help us to perform actions that increase the chances of a long and healthy life, or, on the contrary, prevent it.

Article by Frieder R. Lang et al. Forecasting Life Satisfaction Across Adulthood: Benefits of Seeing a Dark Future? published in the journal Psychology and Aging.

Evgeniya Ryabtseva
Portal "Eternal youth" http://vechnayamolodost.ru based on Medical Xpress materials:
Pessimism about the future may lead to longer, healthier life, research finds.

04.03.2013