The system needs to be changed
According to the results of an epidemiological study conducted by specialists from the University of Newcastle (UK), the number of elderly people suffering from four or more chronic diseases at the same time will double by 2035 compared to the figures for 2015.
These findings are of great importance for the organization of preventive measures and assistance to the elderly on a national scale.
According to forecasts, a third of these patients will suffer from dementia, depression or cognitive impairment.
In the next 20 years, there will be an increase in the number of elderly people suffering from cancer by 179.4%, and diabetes mellitus by 118.1%. The greatest increase in the prevalence of arthritis and cancer is predicted. From 2015 to 2035, the incidence of all diseases, except dementia and depression, will more than double in absolute terms among people over the age of 85.
According to the authors of the study, such a jump in the incidence of four or more chronic diseases is associated with an increase in life expectancy and an increase in the population over 85 years old.
The incidence among people aged 65-74 years will increase due to poor nutrition and the lifestyle they currently lead. Obesity and a sedentary lifestyle are risk factors for many chronic diseases.
These findings are of great importance for the organization of preventive and curative care for the elderly. A system focused on the treatment of one disease in one patient needs to be reorganized and resources prepared for its implementation.
An increase in the incidence of four or more chronic diseases will lead to more frequent hospitalization of elderly patients, the duration of hospital stay will increase. There will be a higher need for re-hospitalization. All this will require an increase in health care costs.
Thus, a healthcare model focused on the treatment of a single disease is unsuitable for patients with multiple chronic diseases. A new approach needs to be developed for them.
Article by Andrew Kingston et al. Projections of multi-morbidity in the older population in England to 2035: estimates from the Population Aging and Care Simulation (PACSim) model is published in the journal Age and Aging.
Aminat Adzhieva, portal "Eternal Youth" http://vechnayamolodost.ru according to the materials of Newcastle University: Number of older people with four or more diseases will double by 2035.