There is no national science, just as there is no national multiplication table
World science is moving to the third world
Denis Zhuikov, STRF.ruOn June 16, the HSE hosted the seminar "Science and Technology Enterprises and their place on the World Map" (Mapping the Global Science and Technology Enterprise) from the series "Science, Technology and Innovation Policy", at which a report was presented by Dr. Ruth David, a member of the US Presidential National Security Council, president of an independent non-profit ANSER Research Institute.
The speaker began her speech with the words of A.P. Chekhov that "there is no national science, as there is no national multiplication table." The spread of science around the world in recent years has been especially strongly promoted by the development of the Internet – after all, thanks to the worldwide network, scientists have been able to publish their research and exchange information with colleagues from other countries. "There is an increase in the number of publications on the Internet, and access to information is being simplified. Scientists in one part of the world easily get information about research in another part of the world," the doctor notes.
According to Ruth David, in ten years, from 1995 to 2005, the number of researchers in the world has increased one and a half times. At the same time (see Figure 1), the growth rate in OECD countries was 60 percent, and in non-OECD countries, the number of researchers doubled (in Russia, however, the picture was not so rosy: the number of researchers decreased by 24 percent over 10 years).
As the speaker noted, the importance of countries such as India and China in the development of basic research and in the introduction of innovations increases from year to year (we noted this trend in the materials "Western science takes root in India" and "In pursuit of innovative technology"). Switzerland, Israel, France, the USA and Denmark are still leading in terms of such an indicator as the ratio of investment in the development of basic research and GDP, in general, R&D spending is also mainly concentrated in developed countries, but developing countries are gradually beginning to catch up with them. The growth rate of R&D expenditures in developing countries is much higher than in developed countries.
In addition, there has been a trend towards a more even distribution of these costs: Western companies prefer to "take out" not only production, but also their research units to developing countries. India and China have again become the most attractive for R&D exports. Ruth David identifies three main reasons that push developed countries to transfer research to developing countries: the opportunity to gain access to giant local markets, to local, cheaper talents and to take advantage of preferential conditions for R&D.
However, the US continues to benefit from the import of minds. However, as David points out, "this has become a problem for us in some way, as it indicates that there are many unresolved issues in the national education system." According to her, more than a quarter or almost a quarter of scientists employed in the United States in the fields of natural and technical sciences, mathematics, and information technology are not Americans by birth. The proportion of foreigners among American scientists with a doctorate degree and above is even greater (Figure 2).
At the same time, there is a decrease in the number of patents granted to native Americans: in 1995, the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office granted them 55 percent of patents, in 2008 – for the first time in history – less than 50 percent.
The financial crisis has affected venture capitalAfter the financial crisis broke out, the governments of almost all countries of the world declared that they would not allow cuts in R&D spending.
Whether it will be possible to do this is a big question. According to David, there is not enough statistical data yet to determine how the global recession has affected the R&D sector.
The money of venture capitalists, which, according to her estimates, will play an important role in the recovery of the global economy, is easier to track. Venture capital moves after the movement of R&D, which makes it possible to predict future changes in the structure of venture investments and, accordingly, research directions.
According to her estimates, the countries of Asia (especially India), as well as South America (mainly Brazil) will become the most attractive for venture capital in the next three years.
The preferred industries for venture investments will be new energy, medical equipment and new media technologies. The financing of R&D in telecommunications will be significantly reduced. All over the world, as Ruth David notes, investments in the development of environmentally friendly technologies will increase.
"The crisis is hitting venture sources of financing, which means that the importance of state investments will increase," the expert noted, "Economic success will directly depend on the development of innovations."
In the end, it is not so much the amount of R&D costs that matters, as the effectiveness of spending. Governments should think about how to increase this effectiveness. Reducing the tax burden for venture companies, state support for entrepreneurial activity, better conditions for access to private capital and measures aimed at facilitating the transfer of technologies from laboratories to markets can contribute to the development and implementation of innovations.
Portal "Eternal youth" http://vechnayamolodost.ru/18.06.2009